中国利用外国直接投资适度规模分析

【作者】 张东峰；

【导师】 宋维佳；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 国民经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年，我国引进的外国直接投资一直呈现稳定增长的态势。2002年，我国实际利用外国直接投资额达527亿美元，居世界首位。我国利用外国直接投资的目的主要是服务于国内经济建设，即引进先进技术和管理经验，利用国内的劳动力和自然资源，扩大出口创汇。然而，外国投资者的直接目的是实现利润最大化，这与我国利用外国直接投资的目的截然不同。诚然，外国直接投资的流入在促进我国经济增长、增加财政收入、促进我国经济结构转变、增加就业机会以及扩大出口创汇等方面做出了不少贡献。但是，外国直接投资的流入也带来了诸如国有资产流失、环境污染等方面的负面影响。 不可否认，在一定时期，一个国家或地区存在着理论上的一个外国直接投资适度规模。外国直接投资规模过小，对我国经济增长的促进作用不明显；外国直接投资规模过大，则会给我国经济带来过多的负面影响，会对我国的经济自主权及产业安全构成很大的威胁。因此，研究我国外国直接投资流入的适度规模具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。 本文第一部分，回顾了我国利用外国直接投资的历程，分析了外国直接投资对我国经济、社会发展做出的贡献及外国直接投资的流入带来的负面影响。 本文第二部分，对外国直接投资适度规模的概念及特征做出了鉴定，提出了外资规模适度的决定因素及判断外国直接投资规模是否适度的各种指标，最后利用传统的经济学分析方法—边际分析法及供给—需求模型对中国引进外国直接投资的适度规模进行分析。 本文第三部分，首先对我国的外国直接投资规模与世界主要的发达国家、新兴工业化国家及发展中国家进行了比较。通过对我国FDI流量及存量、FDI占国内总投资规模的比重和FDI业绩指数等的国际比较，得出了我国引进的FDI规模偏大的结论。其次，利用回归分析方法对我国今后几年的FDI规模进行了预测。 本文第四部分，在前面分析的基础上提出了具体的政策建议。主要包括：大力引进跨国公司R&D投资、调整外国直接投资的区域结构、调整外国直接投内容提要资的产业结构及维护我国经济自主权和产业安全等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, the inflow of foreign direct investment into our country has been maintaining a stably increasing status. In 2002, the quantity of really utilized FDI amounted to 52.7 billion US dollars, which ranked the first in the world. The major purpose of using FDI is to serve the national economic construction just as to introduce advanced technology and management experience, utilize the domestic labor and natural resources and amplify the foreign exchange earned by export. However, the direct purpose of foreign investors is to make the maximum profit, which is quite different with our aim to use FDI. Although the inflow of FDI has made a lot of contribution to our economic development, financial income enhancement, economic structure improvement, employment and foreign exchange promotion caused by export, it also has made some negative effects such as national capital missing and environmental pollutions.It’s undeniable that in a certain period, theoretically there should be a suitable scale of FDI for a country or district, if the scale of FDI is too small, it can not help the national economy effectively, while if the scale is too large, it will bring too much negative effects to our economy and may threat the safety and privilege of our economy. Therefore, the research on the suitable scale of FDI inflow has a great theoretical and practical significance.The first part recalls the history of the utilization of FDI and analyzes the benefits to our economic and social development as well as the negative effects.The second part gives the definition and characteristics of proper scale of FDI and the critical elements as well as some indices to judge the proper scale, and analyze the proper scale of FDI by the methods of traditional economics-marginal analysis and supply-demand model.The third part compares the FDI scale in China with other developed, developing and newly born industrialized countries. By the international comparisonof FDI inflows and FDI stocks, the weight of FDI in gross domestic investment and FDI Performance Index it gets the conclusion that the scale of FDI is a little too high. Then by the method of regression it predicts the scale of FDI in the next few years.In the forth part on the base of above analysis the author put forward the concrete suggestions, which mainly contains promoting R&D of international companies vigorously, adjusting the regional structure and industrial structure of FDI and protecting the privilege and safety of our economy.更多还原