【作者】 高云成；

【导师】 刘星；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 会计学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文从盈利预测及其信息披露的基本理论评述着手，在会计信息披露的基本理论平台上，对盈利预测信息的有用性及其披露的必要性、盈利预测信息的供求关系、信息披露的成本效益以及披露的规范方式和渠道选择做出了理论综述和分析。在理论评述的基础上，本文认为，从造成会计信息质量问题的原因来看，制度层面上的约束在很大程度上影响着盈利预测信息的质量，因此，本文接着采用比较分析的方法，分别从有关盈利预测信息披露的规范方式、披露内容与格式、信息的更正与更新以及审核要求等四个方面对一些国家和地区盈利预测信息披露的现行制度做出比较和分析，并对我国的现行制度做出了评价。之后，在本文的第4、5章采用实证研究的方法，分别从盈利预测信息的相关性和可靠性对我国上市公司盈利预测信息的质量进行了研究。 在对我国上市公司盈利预测信息相关性的研究中发现：由于我国盈利预测信息披露现行制度的缺陷以及我国证券市场的特殊性，造成了我国盈利预测信息相关性较低的问题。在研究我国上市公司盈利预测信息的可靠性时，首先对影响我国上市公司盈利预测信息可靠性的主客观因素做出了理论分析，然后采用实证的方法研究了我国盈利预测信息可靠性与产生主观影响因素的公司治理以及其他影响因素之间的关系，研究结果表明：独立董事占董事会比例越大，盈利预测信息的可靠性越高；而董事会成员持股比例、股权集中度与盈利预测信息的可靠性成反比；另外，上市公司的产权比率越高以及盈利预测的期间越长，也都对上市公司盈利预测信息的可靠性产生了负面影响。最后，论文利用前几章的研究结果，并结合我国证券市场的特殊性，分别从完善上市公司治理结构、加强盈利预测信息披露的监管力度以及改善盈利预测方法三个方面提出了提高我国上市公司盈利预测信息质量的相关对策建议更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the basic theories of the disclosure of accounting information, the basic theories of earnings forecast and it’s disclosure are reviewed. And based on these reviewed theories, the quality of earnings forecast is considered to a great degree be affected by institutional factors in this paper, so some countries’ institutions of earnings forecast are compared, and our country’s actual institution of earnings forecast is valued. And then, in the fourth and fifth chapter of this paper, the quality of earnings forecast of Chinese listed companies are studied from the aspects of relevance and reliability of earnings forecast. In the study of the relevance of earnings forecast of Chinese listed companies, the results show that the limitation of our actual institution of earnings forecast and the particularity of our securities market bring on the problem of the relevance of earnings forecast. And in the study of the reliability of earnings forecast of Chinese listed companies, the subjective and objective influencing factors of the the reliability of earnings forecast are firstly analyzed, then the relationship between the reliability of earnings forecast and the influencing factors is studied, and the results of this study show that companies with a higher ratio of independent directors to total directors will have a higher reliability of earnings forecast and that the percentage of the stock owned by the directors and the concentrative degree of ownership are in reverse to the reliability of earnings forecast, and besides, the ratio of total debt to the equity value of the company and the period of earnings forecast also affect the reliability of earnings forecast. Finally, based on the front studies, this paper puts forward some advice on proving the quality of earnings forecast of our listed companies更多还原