【作者】 彭越；

【导师】 艾南山； 樊宏；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 环境科学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 人类进入现代社会以来，人口的迅速增长加剧了人口对资源需求的无限性与自然资源更新能力及环境承受能力的有限性之间的矛盾，影响到人类的可持续发展。世界各国对人口容量问题展开了广泛研究。山地生态系统在人类生存环境中扮演着重要角色。论文在追踪国内外人口容量研究理论与研究方法的基础上，从理论与实践两方面出发，对山地生态系统人口容量进行了研究，同时引入了系统动力学方法。 在理论方面，论文首先在对人口容量与山地生态系统进行界定，并对其特点进行总结的基础上，对山地生态系统人口容量进行了界定，提出了山地生态系统人口容量的特点及其影响因素。认为山地生态系统入口容量是在综合考虑人所在的生态系统总体结构及人的生活水平条件下，利于整个山地生态系统可持续发展的合适的人口数量。具有动态性和区域分异性；以农业生态系统为基础；其大小最终取决于地区经济系统的产出量；制约因素众多；参数不确定等特点。影响因素有自然资源、农业结构、人口与交通。其次，由于系统动力学是人口容量研究的新方法，论文对该方法进行了介绍，认为该方法是进行山地生态系统人口容量研究的合理方法，并且可行。 在实践方面，论文以茂县龙洞沟为例，进行具体分析。龙洞沟位于岷江上游，茂县城区的东南方，岷江干流左岸，与茂县县城紧密相连，该流域主要包括龙洞与回龙两村。论文对该流域自然、社会经济现状进行了分析，认为其生态环境存在脆弱性，部分居民生活环境艰苦。根据龙洞沟的环境-经济特点，论文建立了龙洞村与回龙村的人口与农业系统动力学模型，并进行了模拟运算，得出了各个时间的人口数量与人口容量，并进行比较分析。认为:(1)龙洞沟流域农业系统存在人口超载问题，其中龙洞村农业系统人口超载问题严重，而回龙村则没有:(2)退耕还林带来耕地紧张，人口容量暂时下降，但长期效益是好的，预期2008年以后该流域的人口容量将由超载转变为不超载;(3)要解决该流域人口超载问题，除应控制人口数量外，龙洞村应发展非农产业，回龙村则应改变农产品结构，改善交通状况。 提出了提高山地生态系统人口容量的措施:(l)实施退耕还林政策，改善生态环境状况;(2)转移剩余劳动力，减轻人口压力;(3)改变单一的粮食生产经营方式，因地制宜，发展多种经营;(4)控制人口增长，提高人口素质; (5)改善交通状况，提高山区居民点的通达性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since human entered in modern times, the population’s quick increase makes the contradiction between the infinity of the population’s need and the limit of natural resource’s renewal ability and the environmental endurance acute. Every country in the world widely researched on population carrying capacity, and human has researched on this problem for several hundred years. Mountain ecosystem plays an important part in human’s living environment. On the base of trailing the theory and method of research on population carrying capacity, the paper does research on the population carrying capacity in mountain ecosystem from two aspects of theory and practice, and introduces system dynamics.In the aspect of the theory, first on the base of the definition of population carrying capacity and mountain ecosystem and summing-up the characteristic of them, the definition of population carrying capacity of mountain ecosystem are given. It is the appropriate amount of population in favor of the mountain ecosystem’s sustainable development, the structure of the human’s ecosystem and human’s standard of living being considered. It has the character such as dynamics, area’s difference, basing on agriculture ecosystem, the size being decided on the output of the economy system in the area, many conditioning factors,-uncertain parameter, and so on. The influencing factors are natural resource, agricultural structure, population and traffic. Second since system dynamics is the new method of research on population carrying capacity,the paper introduces this method and considers that it is the rational and feasible way of research on population carrying capacity of mountain ecosystem.In the aspect of practice, a particular analysis on Longdong Gou watershed in Mao County is given. The watershed includes Longdong village and Huilong village. The actuality of the watershed’s nature and social economy is analyzed. Then it is considered that there is fragility in its ecoenvironment and economy, and some dwellers’ living environment is trial. Basing on the character of Longdong Gou’s environment and economy, the paper sets up the population and agriculture system dynamics models of Longdong and Huilong village. The simulation and operation are done. Then the population amount and population carrying capacity in different time are obtained, contrasted and analyzed. The following conclusion is elicited: (1) there is over loading population problem in the agriculture system of Longdong Gou watershed, of which the problem is serious in Longdong village’s agriculture system, but not in Huilong village; (2) changing the plantation to forest makes the plantation decrease, and the population carrying capacity reduces for a while, but the long-term benefit is good, and it is forecasted that the watershed’s population carrying capacity will be changed from overloading to not overloading from 2008; (3) for resolving the problem of population overloading, besides the amount of population should be controlled, Huilong village should develop industries other than agriculture, and Huilong village should change the structure of farmer produce and improve the traffic condition.And the measures, which should be carried out to improve mountain ecosystem’s population carrying capacity, are pointed out in this paper.更多还原