基于模糊理论的震害预测方法研究及其应用

【作者】 刘章军；

【导师】 叶燎原；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 我国于80年代中期开始推行城市抗震防灾规划的制定工作，其中，震害预测作为抗震防灾规划基础性工作，就是要指出各种建筑(结构)物在不同地震作用下其最有可能出现的震害情况，从而作出诸如是否需要加固或拆除重建等决策。在近20年的发展中，震害预测已由对单体工程发展到对群体系统工程，由对某个典型工程的抗震分析发展到对一个城市或一个大型工矿企业的综合抗震能力作出全面分析判断；预测的对象涉及城市及工矿企业的各个方面，包括各类建(构)筑物、生命线工程、一些要害系统的设施及可能产生次生灾害的危险源等。国内外不少专家学者或研究单位先后提出了各种震害预测方法，本文在此基础上，利用模糊理论，提出了模糊概率的震害预测模型，其模型能够把两类不确定性(一类是随机上的，另一类是模糊上的)有机结合起来，而且对于权重这样一个充满着模糊性的变量，用模糊语言来处理是非常合理的；并应用于对单层砖排架柱厂房、单层钢筋混凝土柱厂房以及多层砖房的震害预测，实践证明此方法是比较精确的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1980’s, works of making the programs for earthquake resistance and disaster prevention have been approached in cities of China. The so-called Damage Forecasting refers to the earthquake damages with the greatest probability of all kinds of structures while suffering earthquakes of various magnitudes. Therefore measures such as strengthening or removing totally are able to be taken. After the development of nearly 20 years, the subject of damage forecasting has been extended to groups of structures from the original single ones, in another word, from one certain building to the whole city. All types of structures are involved in the job ranging the factories, facilities of lifeline, and some dangerous buildings. While many theories concerning damage forecasting were put foreword, a different model of damage forecasting based on fuzzy probability will be presented in this paper. And it is reasonable to describe a variable like weight coefficient with fuzzy theory. In the end, the validity of the model is demonstrated well in the applications of one-storied brick bent frame column factories, one-storied reinforced concrete column factories, multistory masonry buildings.更多还原