【作者】 高峻；

【导师】 郑义彬；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 我国证券市场作为经济体制改革的重要工具和载体，已经成为我国社会主义市场经济框架中一个不可或缺的组成部分。然而，由于我国的证券市场发展时间短、速度快，在各个层面上都存在一些较为突出的问题，严重制约了证券市场作用的发挥。特别是近年来我国证券市场投资回报偏低的问题困扰着许多投资者。本文通过从理论和具体投资实践两个方面剖析了我国证券市场风险和投资组合操作策略的问题，以期达到满足投资者高收益、低风险要求的目的。 本论文首先讲述我国证券市场的投资与风险问题。介绍证券投资的特点与原则，以及证券投资与投机的区别；从微观和宏观两个方面具体分析证券投资的风险；在对证券投资风险分析的基础上提出风险控制的方法和策略；探讨证券投资对象的选择问题，并分析投资我国股票市场交通板块股票的优势。其次，为了更好的对交通板块股票进行投资决策，从财务方面对交通运输类上市公司进行分析。一方面，介绍交通运输类上市公司的财务评价模型，并根据模型对交通运输类上市公司的财务状况进行分析评价。另一方面，选取两只交通板块股票，从上市公司财务报表的角度对其进行分析，并给出投资建议。再次，通过对现有投资组合理论进行分析，指出常见传统投资组合理论的缺陷。并为投资组合理论的创新研究作了铺垫。然后，结合笔者参与的武汉证券公司投资组合课题研究，详细讲解投资组合操作的三个创新系统，包括股票价格定位系统、股票投资组合实时分析系统和股票投资组合杠杆调整系统。其中股票价格定位系统通过将上市公司业绩、发展前景、经营规模、市场波动等参数带入数学模型进行计算的结果，分析股票的内在价值与实际价值的偏差来确定投资对象，它的作用在于使投资者对投资对象的决策由定性决策转变到定量决策上来；降低了投资决策的盲目性，提高了投资决策的科学性和准确性。在确定投资决策后，投资操作人员可以利用第二个系统——投资组合实时分析系统，来进行具体的投资组合操作，它使操作人员能够根据系统计算分析的各参数数据对投资组合的好坏及未来的变化进武汉理工大学硕士学位论文行分析与预测。操作人员在进行投资组合操作的过程中，可以使用股票投资组合杠杆调整系统及时根据整个大盘的波动确定合理的投资仓位;根据股票能量分布实时调整投资品种，使总投资组合能量达到最佳效果。以上三个系统均通过计算机软件实现了自动化功能，进一步提高了投资组合操作的稳定性和准确性。最后，根据数学模型和投资组合操作的三个系统，进行了在交通板块投资组合的实证分析。该实证分析说明了两个问题，其一是投资交通板块股票具有稳定的、较高的投资收益;其二是投资组合的三个系统用于实际操作是可靠和可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The securities market is playing a more and more important role in promoting the reform of economic system in China as a concern implement and carrier. The profundity comprehensive reform of securities market has been a necessity to the socialistic market economy of our country. However, there are many problems in many different aspects for the securities market of our country had a rapidly development in a short term only and, these problems limit the securities market exert his function deeply. In recently years many investors have been persecuted by the low returns of the investment on securities market especially. This article analyzes the risk of securities investment in Practice and theory ways to fill the higher returns and lower risk demand of the investor.In this article, firstly, it discusses the investment and risk of the securities market. It introduces the characteristics and the principles of the securities investment and the difference between investment and speculation. It analyzes the risk of securities investment in microcosmic way and macrocosmic way. It gives the strategy of risk control based on the analysis of investment risk. It discusses how to choose the right investment objects. And, introduce the advantages of investment in the stocks of the transportation block. Secondly, it analyzes the transportation company on the stocks market by the aspect of finance, in order to make a better decision of investment. In one hand it introduces mathematics’ estimate model on finance for analysis of Transportation Company on the stocks market. On the other hand give the financial analysis result of two stocks on the transportation block and some advices on investment. Thirdly, it shows us the shortage of traditional theory of the investment compounding by analyze the ordinary theory of the investment compounding. Fourthly, according to research work which the author take part in the subject of investment compounding of Wuhan Securities Company, it amply describes theinnovation of investment compounding. The innovation includes three systems, The Orientation of Stock Price System, The Real Time Analysis of Investment Compounding System, The Modifying Lever of Investment Compounding System. These systems can help the investor make the right investment decision and give the investor advices of the investment practice. These three systems had achieved the automatic function by use the computer software. Lastly, it gives a demonstration analysis of investment in the transportation block. The demonstration analysis proves two problems. One is the investor can achieve more returns by invest the stocks belonging to the transportation block. The other is that these three innovation systems have a good credibility in real operation.更多还原