【作者】 孙怀军；

【导师】 张永波；

【作者基本信息】 太原理工大学 ， 岩土工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 滑坡是一种十分严重的自然灾害，它给人类带来的损失巨大。对滑坡进行预测预报是减灾防灾的重要措施之一。然而至今，还没有形成一套系统、完善和成熟的理论方法体系来进行滑坡预报。 考虑到各种预测预报理论模型的局限性，本文从前人的理论模型中选出了等维灰数递补动态预测模型、指数平滑预报模型、Verhulst及Verhulst反函数预报模型、趋势移动平均法预报模型、“成长”曲线预报模型等几种模型建成预测预报模型库，以Mapinfo为平台，利用VB6.0语言开发研制了基于GIS的滑坡预测预报软件系统。拟从不同角度、不同阶段、用不同的参数对各种滑坡的变形趋势、临滑以及失稳进行分析预报和综合判断。利用多种模型进行对比分析，采用不同的手段进行资料处理，使滑坡分析预报更具可靠性与准确性。最后，利用本软件对链子崖危岩体进行了预测预报，取得了较好的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Slope which caused great damage is a very serious disaster . Landslide predicting and forcasting is one of effect measures to lessen and prevent calamity . Hitherto , it is not formed a systemic , finishal and mature theory method to predict landslides .Considering the limits of all predicting models , we select some kinds of methods form predecessor’s study such as Grey-movement forecasting modes of uniformly factal, Exponent smoothing prediction Verhulst model forecasting,Verhulst inverse-function forecasting, Trend prediction, Growing model prediction and so on to build a model base . It is a software of landslide prediction which based on GIS and developed by VB6.0 . By this software system , we can accurately decide the stability and destructive time of landslide form different aspect or different phase or different forecast parameters . Though various models and different methods of treating monitoring datas, we can improve our predicting effect and accuracy. Finally, we predict the Lianziya by this software system and draw a well conclusion .更多还原