国债风险问题分析

【作者】 李慧；

【导师】 张晓红；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 财政学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 1997年爆发的“亚洲金融危机”导致了世界性的金融动荡，经济风险及其理论问题，越来越受到国内外理论界的关注和重视。在市场化程度很高、市场机制作用所引发的各种矛盾日渐尖锐和突出的现代市场经济条件下，国家财政自身的安全及其对整个国家安全产生的基础性影响，尤其成为现代财政理论着力探究的重大课题。如何规避财政风险成为困扰世界各国政府的财政难题，对于处于体制变迁或经济转型过程中的中国财政来说，其风险主要来自于国债风险。各国经济发展的实践证明，国债作为一种特殊形式的财政收入，不仅是财政政策的一项重要内容，也是连接财政政策与货币政策的中介，它在筹集资金、促进经济发展的过程中，的确发挥了重要作用。我国自1981年开始恢复发行国债，迄今为止已有20年的历史，国债在社会经济生活中所起的作用不可忽视。但是进入20世纪90年代，尤其是自1998年实施积极财政政策以来，我国的国债发行规模（本文中的“国债”仅指内债，不包括外债）急剧增加，债务依存度也大幅提高，这一状况引起了许多人的担忧和关注：我国当前的国债风险究竟有多大？我们能否继续增发国债？对于所面临的国债风险问题，我们应采取什么措施和办法来防范和化解？本文拟对这一系列问题进行分析并尝试作出合理的解答。第一部分，理论分析：如何理解国债风险。从风险和财政风险入手，解释和说明国债风险的涵义，从定性认识、适度国债规模界定的标准体系及利率因素几个方面对国债风险进行理论分析。第二部分，我国国债风险现状及因素分析。通过对国债负担率、债务依存度和偿债率等指标的分析，分别从发行、流通、使用、偿还等四个环节阐述我国当前存在的国债风险，并从制度上、管理上分析国债风险产生的原因。第三部分，国债风险管理的国际经验借鉴及启示。国债最早起源于西方国家，在漫长的国债发行历史中，许多国家都积累了大量值得我们借鉴的国债风险管理经验。本文通过对部分西方国家在国债期限、品种、持有者选择及国债<WP=3>发行规模控制等方面成功经验的介绍，希望能给我国的国债风险管理带来启示。第四部分，防范和化解我国国债风险的对策分析。根据我国当前存在的国债风险现状，有针对性地提出了如何防范和化解的具体对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The "Asian financial crisis" occurred in 1997 led to worldwide financial panic. Domestic and foreign academic community pays more and more attention to the problem of economic risk and the theory on it. In the conditions of modern market-oriented economy, the level of marketilization is so high and various of contradictions caused by the market mechanism is getting more and more keen-edged and prominent. The national finance, its safety and its basic effect on the whole national safety especially have been the important questions for study or discussion in the field of modern financial theory. How to evade fiscal risk has been a difficult problem puzzling all countries in the world. For China finance which is in the process of structural changes or economic transitions, the risk mainly comes from national debt.The practice of economic development in all countries has proved that the national debt, as a special form of revenue, is not only one important content of the fiscal policies but also the medium linking the fiscal and monetary policies. It has brought into play in the process of raising fund and promoting the economic development. Since 1981 our country resumed to issue national debt, it has been 20 years of history. National debt really plays an important role which can not be disregarded in the social and economic life. But when it came into 1990’s, especially since the active fiscal policies were performed in 1998, our country’s national debt issue amount (The national debt in this thesis only refers to domestic debt and doesn’t include foreign debt) is increasing sharply and the debt dependence degree is heightening by a wide margin. The situation has caused much anxiety and attention from many people: How large is the risk of national debt in our country on earth? Whether can we continue to issue national debt? Faced with the problem of the risk of national debt, what can we do to guard against it and relieve it? This thesis will analyze these series of problems and attempt to give reasonable resolutions.The first part, theoretic analysis: How to understand the risk of national debt?<WP=5>Beginning with risk and financial risk, this part interprets and explains the meaning of the risk of national debt and analyzes it in the aspects of determining the nature, the standard system which determine the moderate size of national debt and interest factor. The second part, the present risk of national debt in our country and the analysis on the factors which cause it. Through the analysis on the indexes of the rate of national debt burden , debt dependence degree and the rate of debt paying and so on, this part respectively expatiate our country’s present risk of national debt from four segments which are issue, circulation，use and repayment. It also analyzes the reasons which cause the risk of national debt in the aspects of system and management.The third part, the international experience and its implication on the management of the risk of national debt in our country. The national debt originated from Western countries initially, and in the long years of issuing national debt, many countries have accumulated a great deal of experience which are worthy of using for reference by us. This part introduces some Western countries’ successful experience on the choice of term structure, variety structure and holder structure of national debt and the control on the national debt issue amount. I hope that these experiences can bring enlightenment for us on the management of the risk of national debt in our country.The forth part, the analysis on the countermeasures which can help us guard against the risk of national debt and relieve it. According to the present situation of the risk of national debt in our country, this part puts forward a few specific countermeasures to guard against it and relieve it.更多还原