【作者】 田淑英；

【导师】 熊小奇；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 政治经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 1998年以来，我国实施了连续六年的积极财政政策。伴随积极财政政策的实施，我国财政赤字和国债规模节节攀升，引起了政界和学界的普遍关注，学术界由此掀起了关于我国是否存在财政风险、是否存在国债发行空间的讨论。然而迄今为止，人们对此问题的研究仍然不够深入。 财政风险危及政权稳定和社会发展，对其系统研究有助于人们正确认识并防患于未然。本文研究的目的就基于此。 本文采用实证分析与规范分析相结合的方法，在吸收前人研究成果的基础上对我国财政风险问题进行了比较系统、深入的研究：科学界定了财政风险的定义与特征，以便人们客观地看待财政风险；系统划分了财政风险的类型，并勾画了完整的财政风险体系；真实反映了我国财政赤字和债务规模的状况，为正确评价我国财政风险提供了依据；全面分析了我国财政风险的成因，探索了各种风险因素的传导机制；针对我国现实情况，提出了防范和控制财政风险的对策。 本文在以上各部分都取得了一定的突破，如：财政风险定义与特征的澄清、财政风险体系的描绘、分析财政风险成因的角度选择、财政风险传导机制的探索以及防范和控制财政风险的某些措施，特别是关于财政风险传导机制的研究填补了目前理论界的空缺。 通过研究，本文认为，我国目前存在较大的财政风险，是内外因共同作用的结果，因而要从多方面进行有效防范和控制，当务之急是要加快政治体制改革进程。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accompanied by positive fiscal policy from 1998, the scale of the fiscal deficit and the national debt in China has been enlarged rapidly, which caused wide concern and debate in not only political but also scientific fields on the problem: Whether fiscal risk exists in china? Is there space to issue stock of national debt? The debate is stillopen now, and furthers the concerned study.Systematic research on Fiscal risk will help people realizing the risk and avoiding its damage to the stability of state power and social development. The thesis is studied just for the aims.Based on former study, the thesis discussed a set of questions on fiscal risk with methods of positive analysis and normative analysis, such as the definition and characteristics, the types and system, real reflects of fiscal deficit and government debts, all these provide objective guide for people to recognize and assess fiscal risk. In addition, the thesis not only explored the forming factors and transmittal mechanism of fiscal risk, but also gave some suggestions on how to keep observe and control the risk.The thesis has made a breakthrough in related fields, such as clarification of the definition, the characteristics and the system of fiscal risks, the perspective of analyzing the forming factors, etc. Especially, the transmittal mechanism of fiscal risks filled the vacancy of current research.The thesis argues that there are serious fiscal risks in China today, which are the consequences of internal and external causes, and should be controlled simultaneously in different perspectives, especially political system reform.更多还原