中国利率市场化问题研究

【作者】 张跟银；

【导师】 许崇正；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 政治经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文研究了中国利率市场化也即利率自由化问题。第一章首先分析了从新古典到凯恩斯再到新剑桥学派的利率决定及作用理论，发现利率市场化是经济运行的内在规律。然后考察了经济发展中的三种利率政策理论：利率压抑、金融深化和金融约束，为我国的利率市场化提供了理论依据。第二章对我国当前利率政策的现状和存在的问题进行了实证分析，并从我国经济体制改革、经济增长方式转变、间接调控和对外开放等方面了论证了利率市场化对于我国经济和金融改革与发展的至关重要性。第三章结合国外利率自由化的经验详细分析了利率自由化的成功取决于稳定的宏观经济、竞争性的金融市场、健全的微观金融企业和完善的外部制度环境等四个因素，然后综合分析了我国当前各方面的经济状况，发现当前实施利率市场化改革存在很多不利条件，特别是微观金融基础和外部监管制度存在着重大缺陷，在这种情况下放开存贷款利率还有很多潜在的风险。第四章针对我国当前存贷款利率改革提出了一些对策建议，认为我国应走渐进式的利率市场化道路，并指出了当前我国政府、央行和商业银行应立即开展的若干先期准备工作，最后分析得出我国存贷款利率市场化改革应采取的具体步骤。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses China’s interest rate liberalization reform. Chapter 1 analyzes interest rate theory from Mashall’s to Keynes’ to Roberstson’s interest theory and we find out that interest rate liberalization is one of basic economic principles, then studies three interest rate policies in economic developing: interest rate regulation, financial deepening and financial restraint, as the theoretical basis for China’s interest rate liberalization reform. Chapter 2 through an empirical analysis on China’s present interest rate situation including interest rate structure and problem, testifies that interest rate liberalization is of great importance to China. In Chapter 3,from a comparative and an empirical analysis of interest rate liberalization reforms in foreign countries, the author concluded the success of interest rate reform lies on four factors, then analyzes China’s economic situation and find out there are some disadvantages in China at present. According to this, the author points out there must be a lot of risks if China deregulates deposit and loan interest rate immediately. In the last chapter, the author suggests that various economic sectors should make some preparations for future interest rate reform and China should deregulate the deposit and loan interest rate in a proper order. He insists that the most important thing at present is to make good preparation and continue the reform with persistence.更多还原