【作者】 伍超明；

【导师】 李家祥；

【作者基本信息】 天津师范大学 ， 政治经济学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 二十世纪八十年代以来，以强化竞争、放松管制为核心的金融全球化浪潮席卷全球，不论是西方发达国家，还是亚洲、拉美的发展中国家和东欧等新兴转型国家，都参与到金融全球化这一行列中来，金融市场一体化形成，虚拟资产24小时不间断地以“光的速度”在全球范围内流动，虚拟经济迅速膨胀，与实体经济的背离程度日趋扩大。虚拟经济这把“双刃剑”一方面使各国经济不同程度地受益，但另一方面虚拟资产价格的破裂给这些国家留下了累累伤痕。1990年的日本，1994年的墨西哥，1997年的东南亚，1998年的俄罗斯，最近的阿根廷及其“多米诺骨牌”效应波及的南方共同体成员国，都无一幸免。因此研究虚拟经济与实体经济背离关系，不仅是世界各国面临的重大课题，而且对我国化解与防范金融风险、防止金融危机、保持虚拟经济和实体经济的健康发展有着十分重要的意义。 本文结构安排如下：在第一章中对虚拟经济与实体经济及其相关概念进行界定，在此基础上对虚拟经济与实体经济背离定义进行分析研究，然后对当前国内外在此领域的研究现状进行概括综述，并指出其不足之处，提出笔者自己的分析思路。第二章对虚拟经济与实体经济的背离进行了实证分析，论证虚拟经济与实体经济之间确实存在背离，且对背离程度用不同的方法进行了核算。第三章在第一、二两章分析的基础上，用数学模型对背离机制进行详细分析，指出虚拟经济与实体经济的经常性背离机制。第四章首先从一般意义上指出传统货币政策在新时期所表现出来的缺陷和不足之处，然后以中国实践为例，分析货币政策与虚拟经济和实体经济背离的关系，对中国货币供应量与背离的关系进行实证分析，指出在经济基础已发生变化的情况下，应把虚拟资产价格纳入货币政策目标，最后对中国货币当局货币政策的制订提出自己的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since 1980s both western developed countries and developing ones all have taken part in financial globalization, the integration of global financial markets has formed. AS a result, fictitious assets can be transacted at a speed of "light" at anytime a day. Fictitious economy expands quickly and misaligns with real economy increasingly, which benefits economy of these countries on one side, on the other side, the burst of fictitious assets prices leads many countries such as Japan in 1990, Mexico in 1994, Southeast Asia in1997, Russia in1998 and recent Argentina to economic crises or financial ones. Therefore, fictitious economy is a "two-side" sword. The study of misalignment between fictitious economy and real economy is not only a very important issue facing all countries in the world, but of great significant for our country to minimize financial risk, guard against financial crises and keep fictitious economy and real economy healthy.This thesis consists of four chapters plus "Epilogue".Chapter 1 centers on the definitions of fictitious economy, real economy and misalignment At the same time, it draws a general picture of misalignment through its history, points out its shortcomings and puts forward author’s standpoints. Chapter 2 deals with empirical studies of misalignment and proves misalignment to be existent. Chapter 3 begins to analyze constant misalignment mechanisms by means of mathematics model and a new IS-LM model including fictitious economy. Chapter 4 firstly analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and misalignment; Secondly suggests that fictitious assets prices should be brought into price targets of monetary policy; At last has a empirical studies to Chinese economy and puts forward some advices on Chinese monetary policy.更多还原