【作者】 尹坚；

【导师】 辛贤；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，在畜牧业生产逐渐向区域化、专业化方向转变和发展，国内畜产品贸易自由化程度不断提高的情况下，我国各地区间畜产品价格联系和贸易流通关系更为密切，国内畜产品市场空间上更趋整合。特别是在WTO框架下，由于国内各省区存在着资源禀赋和经济发展水平等多方面差异，我国各省区畜牧业将呈现不同的发展态势。这些要求在研究我国畜牧业和畜产品市场的发展时首先要以下这些问题：中国畜产品市场地区分布和地区间流通呈现什么样的基本格局?各地区畜产品市场之间存在着何种关系?这种关系将如何演变?只有回答这些问题，才能更有效地制定相关政策，才能更好地对我国畜牧业生产进行宏观调控。肉产品是中国畜产品中最主要的组成部分。本文研究正是为了通过对肉产品市场地区分布和地区间流通的基本格局及其主要影响因素和潜在变动趋势的研究，来把握未来中国肉产品市场发展的潜在趋势，并在一定程度上以此在回答上述三个问题。 为了实现上述目标，本文首先根据空间均衡理论(Spaital Equilibrium Theory)，结合我国的相关特点，建立中国肉产品空间均衡模型(CMPSEM)。CMPSEM的结构模型包括猪肉、牛羊肉和禽肉的供给、需求和地区间流通等三方面，并涵盖了一些影响肉产品市场地区分布和地区间基本格局(即空间均衡格局)的主要因素，而反映地区间贸易流通的空间套利(Spatial Arbitrage)原则充分考虑我国肉产品地区间流通发生的基本条件。其中，运用空间均衡理论分析我国肉产品市场是本文的主要特色和创新。空间均衡理论是一套区域间商品流通模拟研究较为成熟的理论和方法，其可适用于一般农产品市场分析，因此本文对其它相关研究也具有一定的学术借鉴意义。 在建立CMPSEM理论模型后，本文对模型中相关参数进行了估计，以便对我国肉产品市场空间均衡格局状况进行实证研究。其中，实证研究所用各种数据主要是各统计年鉴发布的统计数据。但由于这些二手统计数据存在着肉产品产量高估和消费量低估等方面的问题，因此，为了更准确反映实际情况，本文特对肉产品产量和消费量统计数据存在的问题进行了深入分析，并选择适宜的方法对上述数据进行修正。最后，将调整的结果作为面板数据(Pool data)，运用Eviews软件对CMPSEM理论模型中有关供给和需求方面的弹性进行估计。 设定模型各个参数后，CMPSEM就成为一个实证研究模型。必须对其有效性进行评估。为此，本文以2000年为基期，根据2000年中国肉产品状况设立基准方案，并进行模拟。根据模拟结果与基期实际情况各对应数据进行比较，本文所构建的CMPSEM模型具有较好地反映和模拟现实情况的能力。 接着，基于从供给、需求和流通三个方面考虑对中国肉产品市场空间均衡格局的影响，并根据居民肉产品消费支出、饲料价格、生产技术、运输费用、关税和世界其同国家肉产品产量和需求量等相关变量的变化设立各种政策方案，并进行模拟。通过各方案模拟结果与基准方案模拟的比较，分析中国肉产品市场空间均衡格局的各种潜在演变趋势。从模拟结果看，各种变量的变化将首先影响各地区(或某些地区)肉产品市场供给与需求和地区间流通等之中的某一方面，进而通过价格作用影响中国整个肉产品市场。 最后，结合中国国民经济、畜牧业和其他方面的一些发展情况，考虑多因素共同的作用对未来肉产品市场空间均衡格局的发展情况作了简单的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently with regionalization and specialization in animal husbandry production, domestic trade liberalization of livestock products in China has been accelerated continually. In this background, livestock products market in China trends to spatial integration, while the livestock products prices and trade flows among provinces are more connected. And under the framework of WTO (World Trade Organization), the development of provincial animal husbandries will present different situations, owing to the differentiation of factor in endowments and level of local economic development among provinces. How is the basic pattern of local distribution and interregional trade flows of China’s livestock products market? How is the connection among the local livestock products markets? And how will such connection be evaluated? It is important to answer these questions for policy-making and macro-regulating on China’s animal husbandry and livestock products market.Meat market plays an important role in livestock products market of China. To have a better understanding of those questions aforementioned, this thesis provides a simulation and description of the current spatial pattern of China’s meat market distribution. The overall goals of this thesis are to explore the main factors that affect it and its potential trends, and to provide a comprehensive overview of future China’s meat market.In order to achieve aforementioned objectives, Spatial Equilibrium Theory was introduced to this thesis, and taking account of the characteristics of China’s meat market, China’s Meat Market Spatial Equilibrium Model (CMPSEM) is established. The structural model of CMPSEM includes meat products supply, demand, and interregional trade flows. And the principal factors that affect those three phrases (like spatial arbitrage principle) are considered. The potential spatial structures of meat market are modeled using spatial equilibrium framework, while the factors change. This is the predominant feature and innovation of this thesis. Spatial equilibrium theories are a series of perfect theory and methodology that were used in studying international trade flows. And it also is applicable to analyze general agricultural products markets, so this thesis will contribute to the relevant researches in this field.In the following part, empirical study was employed to analyze China’s meat market and to get the parameters required in CMPSEM, including the demand elasticties and supply elasticities. The data utilized in this thesis are second-hand data that are published in Statistical Yearbook. In view of many problems of overestimating meat production and underestimating meat consumption in second-hand data, the causes of those are analyzed and data adjustment is conducted in this thesis.Having obtained the parameters required in CMPSEM, something must be done to test the validity of CMPSEM. Based on the baseline scenario (reflecting the situation of China’s meat market in 2000), the current meat market distribution is simulated, and the comparison between it and real situation shows that CMPSEM is robust to model the real world. After that, various alternative scenarios are formulated on consumption expenditure, price of feedstuff, production technology, transportation cost,tariffs and etc, and simulated by GAMS. The comparison between base scenario and modeling results of various alternative scenarios shows that various policy variables have an effect on the meat supply, demand and trade flows among regions, which influences the national meat market in China.Ultimately, combined with national economy, animal industry and something like that, a simple projection about the future meat market is made out.更多还原