发电市场中主能量市场的辅助决策问题与AGC容量需求预测问题的探讨

【作者】 倪波；

【导师】 黄民翔；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 电力系统及其自动化， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 越来越多的国家在电力工业领域引入竞争，电力市场已经成为趋势。随之而来的问题也逐渐突现出来。 主能量市场是电力市场中最为重要的市场之一，各发电公司都非常重视自身在主能量市场中的投标策略，以期待获得最大的利润。计算机技术的引入使其能够顺利的运行，但也同时带来了大量的无序数据。发电公司如何利用这些数据分析市场并制定相应的投标策略，除了需要市场操作员的经验外，还需要依靠计算机技术对这些无序数据进行加工，以期获得决策依据。为此，本文针对浙江省电力市场的具体情况，设计并开发了基于数据仓库和数据挖掘技术的发电市场辅助决策系统，使发电公司在最短的时间内获得各种市场信息和决策依据，为报价决策提供有利支持。 随着电力工业市场化改革的进一步深入，各发电公司正从最初的电量价格竞争逐步将竞争重点转向辅助服务的质量和价格竞争。AGC是辅助服务中最重要的一部分，其直接关系到电力市场的稳健运营以及发电公司在AGC市场和主能量市场上的投标策略。因此有关AGC容量的需求预测问题显得尤为重要。本文对此作了初步的探讨，包括提出了一种基于违反量的模型，并对其进行了理论分析，得出该模型具有有界解的结论，最后利用浙江省电网的具体算例来说明该预测方法的可行性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 More and more countries deregulated their power systems, and more and more problems are raising as well.Energy market is one of the most important markets. To maximize benefits, every power company would make its own bidding strategy. Facing numerous data in the market, the power company should use computer techniques to deal with them. This paper designs and develops Auxiliary Deciding System of electric market based on data warehouse and data mining techniques in Zhejiang power market,. The system would make power company obtain a lot of market information, and would help power company make bidding decisions.Now power company focus more on ancillary service and its market than on energy markets. AGC service is the most important part of ancillary service, which affects not only the good operations of electric market but also power company’s bidding strategy. So the problem on AGC capacity requirement forecast is significant. This paper makes study on the problem, constructs a modal based on load offset, and then analyzes it, concludes that the modal has the limitary solutions, finally gives an example to show that it is effective and feasible.更多还原