我国公路发展的相关问题的研究

【作者】 李华；

【导师】 肖昭媛；

【作者基本信息】 上海海运学院 ， 产业经济学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 随着科技进步和产业结构升级，公路运输日益占据越来越重要的地位。目前，我国处于公路建设的快速发展时期，本文就我国的公路建设、投资和债务问题展开研究。 全文共分为四部分。第一部分是基础包括前两章，点明公路运输的重要性。介绍公路运输的战略地位、对经济发展的拉动作用及对区域经济发展所起的作用。给出公路建设和投资的理论依据。公路建设的一个重要依据为公路运输的需求和供给关系，给出运输需求的函数表达式、公路基础设施供给与经济发展的适应关系及适应度指标、公路运输需求和供给均衡模型。公路投资的理论主要是对我国公路投资政策演变进行分析。 第二部分针对我国公路建设规模进行研究。通过总结几个典型国家公路建设的共同规律，得出经济发展到一定程度后，大多发达国家靠通过大规模的公路建设来缩小国内地区间的差异。这正说明我国目前加大西部公路投资力度，缩小东西部差距这一做法的正确性和有效性。运用类比法，对中德两国公路里程和GDP的弹性系数进行分析比较，得出我国在相当的时间内弹性系数将保持在较高水平。最后，从可持续发展角度论述了公路建设合理规模和密度的关系。 第三部分为公路投资分析，从两方面进行讨论。一方面运用灰色理论中的灰关联分析对公路投资的诸影响因素进行定量分析，得出经济总量(GDP)、经济发展水平(人均GDP)及客货周转量是与公路投资关系较密切的因素；运用GM(1，N)模型，分析公路投资和产业结构间的关系。结论是第三产业对公路投资影响最大，其次是第二产业，这两者的影响都是正的，第一产业对公路投资的影响是负的。另一方面对公路总量投资规模和结构投资规模进行分析。总量规模体现在用类比法对中德两国相似发展阶段上的公路投资规模进行比较，可大体反映我国公路在90年代初以前公路投资规模过小，而1998年以后公路投资规模较大。运用GM(1，1)模型对公路投资轨迹进行拟合和预测，掌握公路投资的走势。 最后一部分是公路债务分析。揭示了我国公路债务发展趋势，应用GM(1，1)模型对公路债务进行预测，提出一套衡量公路债务规模风险的指标，给出公路债务资金稳定运行的边界条件计算模型。最后，提出化解、防范公路债务风险的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the progress of science&technology and the upgrading of industrial structure,highway transportation is playing a more and more important role in our society.At present.highway construction has been one of the fastest growing segments.Based on this background.this paper focuses on highway construction,investment and its debts.The whole paper is composed of four parts having altogether of six chapters.The first part contains the first and second chapter.describes the necessity of developing the highway infrastructure and studies its relevent theory such as the relations between demand and supply of highway transportation,the function expression of transportation demand,the adaptable relations between highway infrastructure and economic development.the changing of highway investment policy in our country and so on.The second part is the third chapter,which studies the highway’s construction scale.The conclusion can be drawn from summarizing several typical countries’s highway construction that most developed countries reduce the difference between regions via highway construction in a big way.when the economy reaches a certain degree.This exemplifies the validity of our high-speed highway building in western regions.The elastic coefficient of mileage and GDP in our country is compared with that of Germany.Reasonable proportion of highway construction and its density is discussed from point of sustainable development.The third part includes chapter four and five,mainly deals with the problem of highway investment.The order of affected factors of highway investment is analyzed quantitatively by Grey Relational Analysis;the relations between highway investment and insustrial structure is discussed by using GM(1,N) modeljthe amount of highway investment and the structure of investment are described in detail;the application of GM(1,1) model to fit the real value of investment and a forcast being made.The last part includes chapter six,which indicates the trend of highway debts and forcasting the coming two years’debts.Giving a set of indicators toestimate the risks of highway debts.Establishing the model which can test whether the highway debts surpass the marginal conditions which can work steadily.At last, several measures are brought forward to reduce the risks of highway debts to the minimum.更多还原