【作者】 娄峰；

【导师】 杨庆；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 岩土工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 时间序列分析属于概率统计学科的一个重要分支，近十多年来得到迅速的发展，尤其是实际应用遍及自然科学、社会科学及工程技术的许多领域，越来越显示出旺盛的生命力，而模型的阶次判定则是时间序列分析中非常关键的一步。 本文首先介绍了时间序列分析常用的几种定阶准则，并分析了这些定阶准则的优缺点及适用性，在此基础上结合新奥法施工中的隧道位移的测量数据，对时间序列AR模型定阶准则进行了详细分析和探讨，提出T—F定阶准则，并应用新奥法施工中的中梁山隧道位移监测数据，建立了时序分析的AR(7)模型，并用此模型对时间序列进行预报，与回归法比较可见，本文提出的方法具有相当高的预报精度，也说明了时间序列分析方法具有广泛的应用前景。 另外，本文基于目前各种方法对岩体断裂面分维数测量不准确性，在现有的试验仪器基础上，提出应用概率理论知识对试验数据进行修正，以尽量减少误差，提高岩体断裂面分维数的测量精度，并对具体的试验数据进行了概率分析，初步证明了方法的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important embranchment of probability and statistics, time series analysis has been regarded as a powerful and potential tool for prediction and control. It has been developed rapidly in recent years, especially in physical science, social science and engineering technology. To fix ranks is one of the key steps in the analyses based on time series.In this thesis, the conventional methods commonly used to fix ranks for the time series are examined. The merits and drawbacks of these methods are evaluated. Further investigations on the AR model of the time series are made on the basis of the measured data of displacements obtained from a construction of tunnel by NATM and the T-F method is developed for fixing ranks. It is proven through an example analysis to be suitable and available for the NATM construction of tunnel. Taking the tunnel displacement of the Zhongliang mountain of Sichan province as an example, an AR(7) model is established and then employed for predictions of deformations. Compared with the original observations, the prediction is of high accuracy. Accordingly, the method proposed in this thesis is shown to be widely applicable to engineering practice.As the second part of the thesis, considering the fact that the accuracy of the measurement of fractal dimensions are usually insufficient, a procedure for modifying the trial data based on probability analysis and statistics is proposed in order to reduce trial errors and improve the precision of fractal dimensions. In addition, by practical proof-tests of trial measurements, it is manifested that the methodology is basically feasible.更多还原