【作者】 王旭梅；

【导师】 王宏燕；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 生态学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以牡丹江市持续高效农业示范区为样本，通过示范区结构调整的实地调查和研究基础上，对该示范区农业可持续性作出评价，并以其中二个示范点——渤海、大湾为例进行实证分析。 本文主要采用Delphi法与AHP法相结合的综合评价方法及人工神经网络方法对牡丹江市持续高效农业示范区的可持续性进行评价。通过对所搜集的指标进行调整和归并，筛选出17个指标，然后通过Delphi和AHP方法对所确定的指标进行重要性排序和权重分析的基础上，得出各指标的权值，由此构建该示范区农业可持续发展评价指标体系，继而作出评价。其中，通过人工神经网络方法建立了指标体系的评价模型，并采用容易收敛的基于非梯度的单参数动态搜索算法(SPDS算法)训练网络，输入实测数据库，最后输出结果。 结论如下： 1 通过对牡丹江市持续高效农业示范区的可持续性评价，该示范区在持续发展总体能力方面是可持续的，其主要表现在：通过调整和优化农业与农村经济结构提高了农业比较效益，促进农民收入水平的提高；资源环境与生态可持续性得到改善；农业基础建设明显增强；农业与农村经济综合发展水平明显提高。 2 通过对二个示范点的实例分析——渤海示范点，通过对该示范点农业景观结构调整，其环境效益明显改善，经济效益明显提高；大湾示范点，通过对该示范点农业生态系统的价值流分析，结果表明，其经济效益明显增强。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article takes the sustainable high efficiency agriculture of Mu Danjiang City as the model, evaluates and analyze the sustainability of demonstrate section agriculture through investigating the structure regulation of the demonstrate section, then, take BoHai, Dawan sections for example for actual analysis.The method of appraisal in this article is Delphi method combining with AHP method and Artificial Nerve Net method. First, determine and select the indexes collected, then arrange its importance and analyze the weigh, to found the agriculture sustainable development indexes appraisal system of this section. At present neural network is trained with the algorithm based on decent of gradient, which often results in a slow training and a bad convergence. In this paper, multi-layer feed forward neural network founded on non-gradient Single Parameter Dynamic Search Algorithm (SPDS Algorithm) is employed. Inputting the actual data bands on adopting the appraisal model and analyzing the outputting data.The result shows that the demonstration is sustainable in ability of whole development. First, increase the farmers’ income level and agriculture, comparative benefit through regulating and optimizing agricultural economic structure was increased. Second, improve the resource & environment and ecology sustainability was improved. Third, the agricultural basic foundation is strengthen; Fourth, improve the agricultural economic integrate development level is improved.The analysis result of the two sections shows that: environmental efficiency was improved and that of economy was raised through the regulation of sight structure in Bohai section; Second, in Dawan section, the economic efficiency was improved through analyzing the value flow.更多还原