【作者】 李明；

【导师】 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业经济管理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文根据波动周期理论，用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法研究分析了改革开放以来我国棉花生产波动的周期性规律，对棉花总产量的发展趋势进行了预测，探讨了导致棉花生产波动的深层次原因和影响棉花生产波动的主要因素，并就如何稳定我国棉花生产进行了研究和探讨，为棉花政策研究和决策部门提供参考。全文共分为四个部分： 第一部分，首先对改革开放以来我国棉花生产波动从总体和分阶段两个方面进行了实证描述。其次，对我国各个时期棉花生产波动的原因进行了初步的定性分析。 第二部分，首先运用波动指数对我国棉花生产波动进行了实证分析，总结了改革开放以来我国棉花总产量波动的规律和特点。其次在利用一元线性回归模型估计我国棉花总产量长期趋势的基础上，对我国未来棉花总产量进行了预测。 第三部分对影响我国棉花生产波动的主要因素进行了分析，主要涉及棉花经济政策因素以及科技进步、自然灾害等方面，并对导致我国棉花生产波动的体制原因进行了深入的探讨。 第四部分是在对我国棉花生产波动影响因素分析的基础上，提出了稳定我国棉花生产的政策建议。包括：建立一个更加开放的棉花生产和流通体制、适当压缩棉花种植面积，合理调整棉花生产布局、大力加强棉花科技投入，提高棉花生产的科技水平、为棉花生产经营创造良好的外部环境等．更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the wave theory, this article analyses the periodical charges of China’s cotton production since 1978. It also predicts the tendency of the cotton production, discusses the inner reasons and major factors which lead to the fluctuation of China’s cotton production, thus provide the related government departments with reference on how to stabilize the cotton production. The article can be divided into 4 parts.In the first part, the author describes the fluctuation of China’s cotton production, then analyses the reasons for China’s cotton production qualitatively.In the second part, the author applies the wave index to analyzing the fluctuation of China’s cotton production, and sums up the law and character of the fluctuation of China’s total cotton production. The author also applies one-element linear regression mode to estimating the long-run tendency of China’s total cotton production in the following years.In the third part, the author analyses the major factors which fluctuates China’s cotton production, including cotton economic policy, scientific progress and natural disasters, and makes a further discussion on the mechanism which leads to the fluctuation of China’s cotton production.In the third part, the author proposes some suggestions on making policies to stabilize China’s cotton production, these suggestions include: establish a more open cotton production and circulation mechanism, cut down on the cotton plantation area to a moderate degree, adjust the distribution of cotton plantation, commit more money to research on cotton production and so on.更多还原