【作者】 陈怡；

【导师】 叶民强；

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 ， 数量经济学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 在当今日益密切、复杂的世界经济政治环境中，国际经济贸易关系研究一直是个传统而又不断充满新挑战的课题。在整个国家获得国际经济贸易利益的前提下，以省际为中心利益的自我意识在国内逐渐增强。福建是中国最早开放的省份之一，在赢取国际市场、资本与合作机会的争夺战中，它一方面受到世界各国之间持久竞争的影响，另一方面它正面临着与国内、国外经贸对手的激烈竞争。本文选取“对外经贸”这一对于福建有着重要战略意义的课题作为研究对象，探讨改善福建当前的对外经贸条件、增强福建经贸发展后劲的可行方案及其相关对策，旨为发展福建对外经贸提供科学的决策依据。 本文研究的重点包括四个部份：一是对福建二十多年来在对外经济贸易发展历程上进行纵向的系统总结和回顾，并对此做出客观、正确的评价；二是通过与广东、上海、江苏三省(市区)的横向对比，探索福建自身的比较优势和比较劣势；三是在充分了解福建对外经贸发展历程的基础上构建福建对外经济贸易系统模型，并对其在未来五年内的发展趋势做出预测和分析；四是依据福建对外经贸发展的实证分析结果及对外经济贸易系统模型分析的基础上，针对当前的省情特点，提出相应的发展对策与建议。 本文的创新有以下几点：1．突出了定量分析与定性分析的有机结合，从对福建自身的评价，到福建与其他地区间的比较分析，再到对福建外经贸发展的政策与建议的提出，均基于实证分析的深入研究，并对定量分析与定性分析的有机与系统运用。2．横向对比与纵向对比交互运用，在回顾自身发展的基础上，本文尝试了福建与粤、沪、苏三地的比较分析，较深刻地剖析了闽与这些地区之间差距及其产生原因，旨在寻取他山之石，为福建在对外经贸发展方面提供更丰富的参考价值和广阔的创新思路。3．首次运用现代经济计量技术在福建区域内建立起对外经济贸易系统模型，采用系统的观点分析了福建对外经贸系统与其他国民经济系统之间的相互作用情况，进而将福建的对外经贸经济系统置于WTO环境下，对福建整个国民经济系统未来五年的发展趋势做出了预测。同时，基于进入知识经济时代、我国已加入WTO及实施可持续发展战略的现实背景，对福建发展对外经贸今后应调整的方向提出了一系列的对策建议。因此，该研究涉及的建模分析可广泛应用于我国同类区域的对外经贸发展系统分析及对策研究。 全文共分为六章。第一章为导言部份，主要介绍与文章选题相关的背景、目的、意义、该领域目前的研究动态、应用的主要理论与方法。 第二章～第六章是本文的正文部份。第二章首先阐述对外经济贸易的理论基础，这也是本 文研究的理论基础。理论部份不仅包含古典、新古典与新贸易理论，而且还结合发展中国家的实 际来分析其对国际贸易方式的选择。 第三章是福建与广东、上海、江苏三地在对外经贸发展上的比较分析，是本文的研究重点 之一。在这一章里，本文首先回顾福建对外经贸的发展过程，特地回顾了闽台经贸关系的发展过 程。其次，在评价福建自身对外经贸发展的基础上，通过与粤、沪、苏三个地区的对比，探索福L 建在外经贸方面的相对优势与相对劣势，为研究其发展对策建立了良好的实证基础。．第四章是对福建外经贸关系中的外商直接投资着重进行研究。文章分析了利用外商直接投 资（FDI）对福建的直接经济效应，分为利。弊两个方面；接着，进一步指出当前福建利用FDI 所存在的问题；最后，对福建在今后利用FDI上将要面临的新形势做了估计。 第五章是本文的研究重点之二。在这一章里，本文首先建立了福建对外经贸系统模型，深 入分析了福建对外经贸系统与其他国民经济系统之伺的影响情况；其次，本文将福建对外经贸系 统放在叮 背景下进行模拟，对福建未来五年内整个国民经济系统的发展趋势做出预测。 第六章，是本文的对策建议部份，在前述章节已对福建省对外经贸发展进行了系统、全面的 实证研究、经济计量建模分析及仿真预测的基础上，本章结合福建当前的省情特点，针对知识经 济时代、我国加入们 和实施可持续发展战略新要求等现实背景对福建外资、外贸的发展提出了 一系列的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the reinforcement of affinity and complicacy in world’ s economic and political environment, the international economy and trade relation is kept been regarded as one traditional and challenging subject. On the condition that whole country benefits from processing international economy and trades, the self-awareness based on province benefits has gradually provoked. As one forerunner of the China’ s reformation and opening, Fujian Province is confronted with the fervent competition both aboard, regional and domestic while winning the international markets, capital and cooperative opportunities. Since "international economy and trade " is of strategical importance to Fujian, we are obligated to discuss some practical proposal which can really improves its benefits.This thesis focuses on four parts: Firstly, make the approximately objective and proper comments on the development of Fujian’ s international economy and trade; Secondly, comparing with Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu Area, find out the Fujian’ s comparative advantages and comparative disadvantages; Thirdly, establish the systematic models of Fujian international economy and trade(FIET) , forecast and analyze its development trends within five years;and finally, provide the corresponding suggestion and countermeasure for development of FIET, according to the results both of positive analysis and systematic models of FIET.The followings are the innovation in this thesis:1. Combine the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis perfectly. For instance, the self-estimation of Fujian, the comparation to other areas and the suggestion to activate the development of Fujian’ s international economy and trade are all on the basic of combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis.2. Alternate the transverse comparation with lognitudinal comparation. After retrospect on the process of Fujian’ s international economy and trade, the thesis makes further comparation with those of Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu. In this method, we can select the suitable experience for Fujian , offer much more valuable and creative opinions for its development.3. Initially adopt the method of modern economic computation to establish the systematic model of FIET. FIET being one part of the national economy of Fujian, the thesissystematically explain the interaction between FIET and the else of national economy of Fujian. The model simulates on the condition of China entry into WTO and forecasts the future trends of FIET in five years. Afterward, the thesis provides proposals for development of FIET.There are six chapters in this thesis. The first chapter introduces the subject’ s background, purpose, purport, precent researching trends and the main theory and methods applicated in this thesis.From the second chapter to the sixth chapter are straight matters. The second chapter exoatiates on the basic theory of international trade that is also the theory base of this thesis. It includes classical , new-classiclal and new international trade theory and bring out the trading modes which developing countries can choose from.As one of emphases in this thesis, the third chapter focuses on the comparation Fujian’ s international economy and trade to those of Guangdong, Shanghai and Jiangsu. In this chapter, it overviews the development of FIET, specially in the economic and trading relation between Fujian and Taiwan. Through the comparation, we can probe in Fujian’ s comparative advantages and comparative disavantages.The forth chapter studies foreign direct investment(FDI) in Fujian. It analyzes the positive effects and negative effects on the economy of Fujian. The existing problems and the new situation in exploiting Fujian’ s FDI are pointed out.As another emphases of this thesis, the fifth chapter establishes the model of FIET and displays the interaction between FIET and the else factors in Fujian’ s national economy. Under the ground of WTO, the model simulates and forecasts the future trends in whole national economy of Fujian.更多还原