保险公司动态财务分析

【作者】 潘竟成；

【导师】 陈迪红；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 金融学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 “动态财务分析”作为未来保险公司资产负债管理技术发展的趋向，不仅能够胜任对保险公司经营和财务状况进行全面整体性预测分析的工作；而且还能对保险公司资产和负债状况的变化，实施动态监控，从而为民族保险业构筑最初也是最有效的财务风险预警系统。这些领域内的研究工作充满挑战和激情意义，在国内却几近空白，也正是促使我思考的原动力。 此学位论文的基本结构如下：第一章是导论。该部分阐述论文构思的建立，研究工作的主要内容，以及研究的意义。 第二章是论文的创作背景介绍。该部分通过大量文献的回顾，对动态财务分析思想的产生和发展，进行了简要的历史回顾。并就20世纪80年代至今保险公司资产负债管理技术的发展和革新历程，阐述动态财务分析在保险公司风险管理中的应用意义。 第三章是保险公司动态财务分析模型研究。该部分内容对保险公司“动态财务分析模型”的模型要素；情景分析、随机模拟方法的适用性；保险公司动态财务分析模型的构建；以及Dynamo3．0动态财务分析软件的使用等问题，做了深入的分析和思考。 第四章着力探讨动态财务分析在保险公司财务管理中的应用问题。在这部分内容中，本人对动态财务分析在我国保险公司财务管理，尤其是财务预测方面的应用，作了详实的分析。明确提出并详细论证了，“动态财务分析可以作为将来国内上市保险公司预测性财务信息披露的框架性模式”的学术观点。在本章的最后，还提供了北美地区保险公司财务管理的有益经验。 论文的第五章，是从保险公司偿付能力管理工作的两个重要方面，来阐述动态财务分析的应用价值。该部分不仅详实全面地论述了动态财务分析在保险公司资本管理、资产负债管理、以及再保险规划工作中的应用，并且在此基础上，阐述了可以通过动态财务分析来“配合国内现行的偿付能力监管指标体系，为民族保险业构筑有效的财务风险预警系统”的观点。同时，本章还介绍了动态财务分析在美国及澳大利亚偿付能力监管工作中的应用经验。 论文的最后部分，即第六章，是前述各方面研究工作的结论总结。更多还原

【Abstract】 As future development trend of Asset- Liabilities-Management (ALM) Technology of insurance company, Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) can not only be competent for comprehensive and holistic forecasting task of insurance company’s operation and financial status, but also can help national insurance industry build the most preliminary, and probably the most effective financial risk forewarning system, by dynamically scrutinizing assets and liabilities conditions changes of insurance company. All study tasks in these research fields are imbued with challenges and enthusiasm, however they are still a virgin soil in our country, which give me the very impulsion to explore the mystery.The main framework of this dissertation is as the following. The first chapter is Introduction, which sets forth the conceptive construction of my dissertation, the main contents of my research, and its study meaning.The second chapter is the background introduction, which makes brief history review of the origin and development of DFA’s ideas. Based on so much relative literature, this chapter makes detailed analysis of development course of ALM technology, and expounds the instructive meanings of DFA’s application in insurance company risk management.The third chapter is the study of DFA modeling, which probes into such research fields as modeling components in DFA model, applicability of scenario analysis and stochastic simulation, building structure of DFA model, and how to use the Dynamo 3.0 DFA software, etc.The fourth chapter discusses the application of DFA in financial management fields, especially in financial forecasting, of our country’s insurance companies. In this part, the author makes detailed argumentations to support, and has definitely put forward, the academic viewpoint which is that future listing insurance companies of our country can choose DFA as their framework of forecasting financial information disclosure system. And in this chapter, the author also introduces some experiences of financial management in North American insurance company.The fifth chapter is the application discussion of DFA in solvency management of our country’s insurance company. From two important aspects of insurance company’s solvency management, the author expounds in details the application and its value of DFA in Capital Management, Asset Liabilities Management, and Reinsurance Planning. The author also puts forward his own viewpoint, which DFA can help national insurance industry construct valid forewarning system against financial risk, and can cooperate with current solvency regulation ratio system too. The author also introduces some solvency regulation experience in America and Australia in this chapter.The last par of the dissertation, namely Chapter Six, is the summary conclusion of foregoing research.更多还原