【作者】 拓冬梅；

【导师】 郭继鸣；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 汽车工业是技术密集型产业，具有规模效益、高附加值、强关联度等特点。我国的汽车工业总体处于成长期，与发达工业国家相比落后15～20年，尤其是轿车尚属幼稚工业。 加入WTO会给中国的汽车产业带来机遇和挑战，如何化解风险、把握机遇是极为重要的理论问题与现实问题。 本文综合考虑了加入WTO后，我国汽车产业关税税率的变化，以及国民经济主要指标等因素，利用多因素协调预测模型预测加入WTO后我国汽车市场需求。 文章通过对中国汽车市场需求、市场结构、市场行为的等问题的论述，定性分析了加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响。 本文根据中国加入WTO议定书，运用中国经济可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，定量分析了中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)对中国汽车产业的影响。 根据加入WTO对中国汽车产业的影响，提出对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Automotive industry is a kind of skill concentrated industry. It has scale intensified,hige attached value and strong connecting power.Chinese automotive industry as a whole is still growing, it is 15~20 years backward compared with developed industry countries. Saloon car manufacturing is especially immature.China’s entrance into World Trade Organization (WTO) will bring chances and risks to automobile industry in China.How to eliminate the risks and grasp the chances turns to be one of the most important theoretical and practical issues.Considering tariff concession and china’s economy,following a multielement-synchronizing forecasting model,this paper prediction china’s automobile market after WTO entry.In term of the analyse of the market demand ^ structure ^ behavior, puts forward the impact of the WTO entry on China’s automobile industry by qualitative means.In line with China’s WTO protocol ,this paper devotes to a quantitative analysis of the impact of China’s entry into the WTO on its economy,following a "computable general equilibrium (CGE) model".According to the impact of China’s entry into WTO,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.This paper bring forth some new ideas in forecasting market demand and quantitatively analyzing of impact of the WTO entry on China’s automobile industry by CGE model.更多还原