中国上市公司股利政策的数量分析与实证研究

【作者】 李锐；

【导师】 黎实；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 数量经济学， 2000， 硕士

【摘要】 股利政策研究是财务经济学的一个重要分支，也是数十年来一直困扰着经济学界的一个谜。费雪·布莱克（Fishe BI。内在 1976年称之为“股利之谜”汀heDi山dmd Pu。lJ，并说，“我们越是努力研究它，它就越像一个谜”。迄今为止，经济学家尚未能为这个谜找到一个能普遍接受的谜底。 股利政策是上市公司利润分配过程中的一个重要问题。上市公司在利润分配过程中，税后利润首先要用于弥补亏损、提取盈余公积金和公益金，当年度的未分配利润与以前年度结存的未分配利润一起，构成支付股利的资金来源。弥补亏损、提取盈余公积金和公益金等利润分配，在国家法规＠公司法）中均有明确规定，其分配方法带有极大的规范性和固定性；而向股东支付股利，法规没有明确的规定，带有极大的灵活性，因此也就成为上市公司利润分配管理中的重要问题。合理的股利政策，将对公司的生产经营活动的顺利进行、创造良好的外部环境发挥重要的作用；合理的股利政策，将为公司提供廉价的资金来源；合理的股利政策是稳定股市行情的重要手段；合理的股利政策也是争取潜在投资者的重要手段。 上市公司实施合理的股利政策对公司和股东都具有重要的意义。制定合理的股利政策需要有成熟的股利理论作指导，但长期以来，股利理论在学术界有很大的争议，有关股利与股价的关联性及其对股东财富的影响等问题，至今还没有实证性的统一认识。尽管如此，国外从七十年代开始围绕着股利和股利政策在理论和实证方面做了大量的工作，从各个方面得出了一些很有意义的结论。而中国证券市场的历史短暂，有关股利分配的理论与实践尚处于摸索阶段，特别是近年来上市公司在股利分配实践中，存在着盲目跟风、不重视中小股东利益的倾向，从另一个侧面反映了我国股利政策理论研究的薄弱。我国股利政策理论的研究更多的是从财务理论的角度进行，缺乏系统的实证 一W”研究和数量分析。从西方国家股利研究方法的发展来看，。。不同阶段研<WP=3>究方法的侧重点不同，经历了定性分析到定量分析、冉大头证分析的发展过程。由于股利政策影响因素的复杂性，使得实证研究的范围越来越受到局限。正因如此，近年来，股利政策的数量分析方法再次受到重视，形成了数量分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法。本文通过借鉴西方的股利理论和实证分析方法，对中国上市公司的股利政策进行实证分析，并结合数量分析方法，针对股利分配的特点，重点地从股利的信号传递效应、股利政策的影响因素、股利结构以及股利的动态决策等方面对股利政策进行了实证分析和数量分析，目的是分析影响我国股利政策的影响因素，解析我国实施股利政策中存在的问题，并对我国上市公司股利政策提出一些建议，同时为上市公司的股利决策提供一个数量分析的框架。 全文共分五章。 第一章导论。本章重点讨论了股利、股利政策及其相关的若干概念，比较分析了中国股利分配现状与西方上市公司股利分配特点。现阶段，中国上市公司股利分配具有以下几个特点：（）不分配或中期不分配的公司逐年增多；＊）股利分配形式多种多样，送股、资本公积金转增股本日趋普遍；闷）股利分配政策波动性大，缺乏连续性；（4在牛市中上市公司以送红股、公积金转增的方式进行股利分配的较为普遍，而在熊市时，上市公司偏好以现金分配方式进行股利分配。 在第二章中，我们对具有代表性D，J股利理论进行比较分析和评述。现代股利理论主要有两大流派，根据股利政策是否对公司价值有影响而分为股利无关论和有关论。股利无关论是建立在一系列严格的假定基础上的，在完全的资本市场上，股利无关论是成立的。然而，现实的市场是不完全的，股利无关论仅仅具有理论分析的意义。在不完全的资本市场上，股利政策对公司价值是有影响的。这是本文进行实证研究和数量分析的理论基础。通过对股利理论的比较分析，我们认为股利政策是重要的，股利决策不是被动性的，它应该是上市公司的一种主动的理财计划与策略。 第三章主要从方法论的角度提出了股利决策的分析框架。这里着重从四个方面进行了分析：首先分析股利政策是否具有信号传递作<WP=4>用）也就是说，股利政策是否对股票价格有影响。如果有影响，那么影响股利政策的主要因素有哪些乡从定性的角度看，影响股利政策的因素很多，但哪些因素是主要因素，用定性分析是无法明确回答的，这就需要采用定量分析方法，本文主要采用典型相关分析、逐步回归分析和因子分析法；在股利决策中，如何确定现金股利和股票股利间的比例关系，也就是股利结构分析，对于上市公司来说，在不同的发展阶段采用何种股利政策，对于公司的发展具有较大更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the contributing factors that affect dividend policies of public companies and the problems existing in the execution of dividend policies. At the same time, it is an attempt to provide an analysis frame for Chinese companies’ dividend decision in actual practice. Dividend policy research is one of the important branches of financial economics. It has also puzzled the economics domain for decades. Fisher Black named it "the dividend puzzle" in 1976. He said: "The more we exert ourselves to research it, the more it is like a puzzle." Up to now, economists have not found a generally acceptable answer to this riddle; dividend policy remains to be a puzzle.Because "dividend" is the beneficial link between companies and investors, a correct cognition of dividend theory has an important practical directive function. The history of the Chinese stock market is very short and the comprehension of dividend theory and practice is relatively shallow. My thesis will analyze the dividend policy of Chinese companies in respect to empirical testing and quantity analysis by using western countries’ research findings for reference.Dividend policy is an important issue in the process of profit distribution by public companies. The year’s undivided profits together with undivided profits retained from former years compose fund resources for dividends. In the process of profit distribution, after-tax profits are firstly used to cover the loss, surplus accumulation funds and public welfare funds are secondly drawn. Such first and second profit distributions have specific law stipulations (such as Corporation Law of PRC). These kinds of profit distributions are a normal part of dividends and are of a fixed percentage. However, dividends distributed to the <WP=7>shareholders do not have specific regulations. Because dividend distributed to the shareholders is flexible, it becomes an important issue for the management of public companies’ profit distribution. Rational dividend policies after the first and second profit distributions are drawn, will play the primary role of making the companies’ production and operations successful and creating favorable exterior circumstances; secondly, it will provide cheap fund resources; thirdly it will be used to stabilize the stock market; fourthly it will be used to win over potential investors.Carrying out rational dividend policies by public companies has prominent meaning to both the companies and the shareholders. Establishing rational dividend policies need guidance from mature dividend theories. But the rationale of dividend theories has been argued furiously in academia for a long period of time. As yet, there isn’t a uniform theory used to identify economic phenomenon in empirical testing. A uniform theory is not only relevant to dividend policies and share prices, but it also has impact on the shareholders’ wealth. Nevertheless, western countries have done a lot of work on dividend policies and have drawn some significant conclusions after 70s. In China, however, dividend distribution theory and practice are still groping. Recently, public companies have the tendency to blindly do what other companies deem as popular and think little of the middle and small shareholders’ interests. This, to a certain extent, reflects the weakness in China’s dividend theory research. China mostly researches dividend policy from the viewpoint of financial theory. This kind of research lacks systematic empirical testing and quantity analysis. By using western countries’ successful dividend theories and empirical testing analysis methods, this thesis is an attempt to analyze Chinese public companies’ dividend policies and make quantity analysis from an empirical point of view. The whole thesis is divided into five chapters:<WP=8> Chapter one is the preface. This chapter discusses several concepts like dividend, dividend policy and other relevant concepts. It also makes a comparative analysis between Chinese dividend distribution in its present situation更多还原