从相机抉择到自动稳定器——论积极财政政策的终极目标

【作者】 魏凤春；

【导师】 武彦民；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经学院 ， 财政学， 2000， 硕士

【摘要】 市场经济下，政府运用财政政策逆对经济运行，通过熨平经济周期，来达到促进经济增长的目标，是一种相机抉择的政策取向。积极财政政策的实施是在内忧外患中出台的一种应急的措施。九十年代宏观调控力度过大，经济紧缩；渐进的市场化在初步完成了社会资源和财富由公到私的分配后，帕累托改进的过程即是财富在个人之间的重新分配。而社会分配的不公使得社会各阶层对商品的需求出现不同程度的断层，社会保障制度的残破以及一系列社会福利的货币化改革在中国经济趋向谷底的过程中带给广大社会民众的是未来不确定性增大的预期——内需不足。东南亚金融危机的爆发，使得出口导向型的中国经济在出于人民币不贬值的硬约束下受挫颇大——外需不足。政府主导型投资导致的重复建设使得社会总供给相对过剩。在政府穷尽货币政策之后，出台扩张性的财政政策是不得已而为之，而仓促上马的结果是从一开始就可以预测到的。政府自身沉重的财政压力又使得政府在实施政策时投鼠忌器，一忌财政经济双危机，二忌通货膨胀以及滞胀出现的可能。于是政府采取了折衷的办法，增税和增支并举。现代经济理论和经济运行的分析表明由于相互抵消的作用，用政府支出来拉动经济增长的目标难以达到，一个直观的标的便是“乘数之迷”。“乘数之迷”的解出应该考虑到财政政策与货币政策在新形势下的配合问题。公共选择理论表明了政治家、官僚与选民之间的博奕关系也表明了由于信息不对称导致的道德风险使得政策的效应不大。而政府孤军奋战的可能会引起旧体制的复归。事与愿违的情况表明了中国在渐进化改革的过程中财政制度设计的欠缺，而相机抉择的财政政策对市场化的进程的消极影响，道德风险的产生等方面不可避免。中国现阶段经济的特征决定了财政政策必须具有长期化的特征，而从相机抉择到自动稳定器的转变应是积极财政政策的终极目标。制度设计应从完善税制和社会保障制度出发，建立具有中国特色的自动稳定器。当经济出现波动时，自动逆对经济周期，达到资源配置、公平分配、经济增长与稳定的政策目标。 本文共分五部分：一，乘数之谜；二，政策实施的背景分析；三，政策失灵的原因剖析；四，相机抉择与制度缺陷；五，自动稳定器与制度设计。更多还原

【Abstract】 The government applies fiscalpolicy anti economic performing to flat the economic cycles in order to achieve the goal of promoting economic growth in the marketing economics, which is catted the Discretionary Choice policy. It is a contemporary method for the government to use the Active TiscaC (Policy in the most urgent condition. The extent of macro-adjust and controlling is so large that the economy shrines in 1990s.Pareto improvement maizes the weaCth distributed among peoples after the distribution finishedfrom the public department to private in the Beginning of market reform. The unjust distri6ution let the demand for the goods Stocked in aft kinds of the social stratum and the deformity social security system and a series of monetary reform for social welfare Bring the human the anticipate that the uncertainty Becomes more and more in the future while the economic is stiff in the Bottom. So the insufficient civil demand comes. In the same time, the outside demand is also not enough Because the export orient economy met a lot of difficulties limited the Renminbi no devaluation and the essential factor is the Breaking of South-east Asia Crisis. And the repeated Building resulted in the government leading investment make the social aggregate supply extra. The government have to apply the enlarge fiscal policy after finding the monetary policy is no useful, and we can easily predict it wiUnot succeed. The ponderous fiscal stress let the government itself hesitate to pelt a rat for fear ofsmashing the dishes it while he does it. First, he fears the douBfe crisis of finance and economy, second, the proBaBility of inflation. So the tradeoff is to increase the tax^ and expand the expenditure which witt not reach the goal of drawing the economic growth, we can find it carefully through the Multiplier Riddle. To make the riddle clear, we must consider the cooperation Between the fiscal policy and the monetary policy in the new condition. The game relation among the polemicist, Bureaury and constituency expresses thatthe policy will not operate wed Because of the asymmetry of information and the moral hazard. At the same time, to avoid the system return its former is urgent for when the government put all one’s eggs in one Basket. The shortcoming of fiscal system design and the (Discretionary Choice policy block the proceedofmarket reform. To design a long run fiscal system is important, and the Best way is divert the Discretionary Choice to the automatic staBiGzer. The feature of automatic staBiGzer in China should include the perfect tax_ mechanism and the social security system. We want to achieve the target By flatting the economic cycles spontaneously which is in the Below: resource allocation, equity distribution and economic growth andstaBuity.更多还原