【摘要】 【目的】本文致力于突破膜生物反应器(MBR)膜寿命预测领域的技术瓶颈，即针对缺乏多维耦合的寿命评价指标体系及难以精准量化膜污染与膜性能衰减协同作用机制，构建科学的寿命预测方法体系。【方法】建立以比通量为膜性能衰减和寿命评价的核心指标，跨膜压差实时表征膜污染动态，累计产水量界定机械极限的三级指标体系。基于“理化性能衰减-功能极限判定-维护干预影响”的全生命周期理论框架，本文构建了集成比通量衰减法、累计产水量分析法及化学清洗强度评估法的寿命预测方法体系。基于机器学习算法动态解析运行数据与膜污染的关联机制，开发膜寿命在线评估模型，指导MBR工艺智能运维。【结果】基于A污水厂6年期运行数据集的验证，此模型在膜污染量化、异常工况识别及工艺参数优化等方面表现优异，7#、10#、16#膜组预测寿命稳定在8.5年，较制造商标称寿命(8年)提高6.25%,较人工预测均值(7年)提高约21.43%。【结论】本文构建的“指标体系-方法集成-模型开发”三位一体框架，实现了膜性能衰减、污染量化等多维度耦合分析，所提出的预测方法兼具可行性和鲁棒性。模型的应用可辅助优化膜组件更换周期及化学清洗策略，显著提升膜组的使用效率，降低运维成本，具有一定的工程应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] This paper aims to address the technical bottlenecks in the field of membrane lifespan prediction for membrane bioreactor(MBR), namely the lack of a multidimensional coupled lifespan evaluation index system and the difficulty in accurately quantifying the synergistic mechanism between membrane fouling and membrane performance degradation. A scientific lifespan prediction methodology system has been constructed.[Methods] A three-tier evaluation system was established, utilizing specific flux as the core criterion for membrane performance degradation and lifespan assessment, employing real-time transmembrane pressure to characterize membrane fouling dynamics, and defining cumulative water production as the mechanical limit index. Based on the full life-cycle theoretical framework encompassing "physicochemical performance degradation-functional limit determination-maintenance intervention effects", this paper developed a comprehensive lifespan prediction methodology integrating specific flux attenuation analysis, cumulative water production evaluation, and chemical cleaning intensity assessment. An online membrane lifespan evaluation model was subsequently developed, by dynamically analyzing the correlation mechanism between operational data and membrane fouling using machine learning algorithms, which served to guide the intelligent operation and maintenance of MBR processes.[Results] Validated with six-year operational data from wastewater treatment plant A, this model demonstrated superior performance in membrane fouling quantification, abnormal operation identification, and process parameter optimization. The predicted lifespans for Group 7#, 10#, and 16# stabilized at 8.5 years, showing a 6.25% extension over the manufacturer-specified lifespan(8 years) and a approximately 21.43% improvement compared to manual prediction averages(7 years).[Conclusion] The proposed "index system-method integration-model development" three-in-one framework enables multidimensional coupled analysis of membrane performance degradation and membrane fouling quantification. The developed prediction methodology demonstrates feasibility and robustness. The application of the model aids in optimizing membrane module replacement cycles and chemical cleaning strategies, significantly enhancing the service efficiency of membrane modules and reducing operation and maintenance costs, thus demonstrating certain engineering application value.更多还原