【摘要】 提振消费、扩大内需是我国推动高质量发展、积极应对人口老龄化的重要战略方向。本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，从家庭财务脆弱性视角出发，探讨人口老龄化对家庭消费的影响机制，以及社会保障在其中的缓解作用。研究结果表明：人口老龄化会显著增大家庭陷入财务脆弱性状态的概率，进而抑制家庭消费总量与消费升级。养老保险能有效缓解老龄化对家庭财务状况的冲击，但其同时会强化财务脆弱性对消费支出的抑制效应。相较之下，高水平医疗保险能缓解财务脆弱性对家庭消费的不利影响，却难以有效对冲老龄化带来的财务冲击。异质性分析发现，城镇家庭的财务状况更易受老龄化冲击，农村家庭消费对财务脆弱性反应更强；与低教育水平家庭相比，高教育水平家庭财务受老龄化影响较小，但消费对财务风险更为敏感。本文的研究为理解人口老龄化下家庭消费行为转变提供了理论解释，对完善社会保障体系、扩大居民消费具有一定政策启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand are crucial strategic directions for China to promote high-quality development and actively respond to population aging. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this paper examines the mechanism through which population aging affects household consumption from the perspective of household financial vulnerability, as well as the mitigating role of social security. The results show that population aging significantly increases the probability of households falling into financial vulnerability, thereby suppressing both total household consumption and consumption upgrading. Pension insurance partially alleviates the impact of aging on household financial distress, yet it strengthens the suppressing effect of financial vulnerability on consumption expenditure. In contrast, high-level medical insurance mitigates the adverse effect of financial vulnerability on household consumption but is less effective in offsetting the financial shocks induced by aging. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that urban households’ financial status is more susceptible to aging shocks, while rural households’ consumption is more responsive to financial vulnerability. Compared to less-educated households, highly educated households experience smaller financial impacts from aging,but their consumption is more sensitive to financial risks. This study provides a theoretical explanation for understanding shifts in household consumption behavior in the context of population aging and offers policy implications for improving the social security system and expanding household consumption.更多还原