【摘要】 中国式现代化既要批判吸收各国现代化的共同特性，又要契合国情实施适应性改良，构建一套科学、动态、开放、具有中国特色的评价工具，客观反映中国在现代化方面所处的历史阶段和行动进程。长期以来，中国式现代化更多停留在理论层面的概念解读，缺少循证定量的数据支撑，难以对实际情况进行精准描述。从中国特色社会主义现代化的内涵和目标出发，梳理了中国式现代化评价指标体系的构建思路，以中国式现代化的“五个现代化特征”作为一级指标，构建了包含15个二级指标和59个三级指标的评价指标体系。基于该指标体系，测算并分析了全国2012—2023年的中国式现代化指数的演化进程，并对其蕴含的变化机制和发展趋势展开了分析解读。研究表明，中国式现代化的历史进程呈现出不可阻挡的趋势，但受制于发展资源存量、外部势力干扰、内部结构调整等因素，总体上呈现稳步提升、偶尔波动的特点。同时，以新冠疫情为代表的非预期公共卫生事件会对国家现代化产生冲击效应，但中国本身蕴含的制度韧性起到了良好的缓冲作用，这是中国式现代化进程行稳致远的重要制度保障。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chinese modernization emphasizes both the critical assimilation of common features observed in global modernization processes and the implementation of adaptive adjustments aligned with national conditions.It calls for the construction of a scientific,dynamic,and open evaluation framework with distinctive Chinese characteristics,capable of objectively reflecting the historical stage and developmental trajectory of modernization in China.For a considerable period,discussions on Chinese modernization have largely remained at the level of theoretical interpretation,with insufficient empirical and quantitative evidence to support precise descriptions of real-world progress.Grounded in the connotations and objectives of socialist modernization with Chinese characteristics,the conceptual pathway for building an evaluation index system of Chinese modernization is systematically examined.The framework adopts the “five defining features” of Chinese modernization as primary indicators,further developing a structured system comprising 15 secondary indicators and 59 tertiary indicators.This multi-layered index system provides a comprehensive and measurable approach to capturing the complexity and multidimensionality of modernization in the Chinese context.Based on this evaluation framework,the annual evolution trajectory of the Chinese modernization index from 2012 to 2023 at the national level is calculated and analyzed.The results reveal both the underlying mechanisms of change and the broader developmental trends embedded within the modernization process.Findings indicate that the historical progression of Chinese modernization demonstrates an irreversible and forward-moving trend.However,this trajectory is shaped by multiple constraints,including the availability of development resources,external geopolitical influences,and the necessity of internal structural adjustments.As a result,the overall pattern is characterized by steady advancement accompanied by occasional fluctuations.In addition,unexpected public events,exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic,exert notable shock effects on the modernization process.Such disruptions temporarily alter developmental dynamics and introduce uncertainties into the trajectory of progress.Nevertheless,the inherent institutional resilience embedded within China’s governance system plays a significant buffering role,mitigating adverse impacts and facilitating recovery.This resilience not only stabilizes short-term fluctuations but also reinforces long-term continuity in modernization efforts.The analysis highlights that the sustainability and stability of Chinese modernization are closely linked to its institutional foundations,which provide both adaptability and robustness in the face of internal and external challenges.The proposed evaluation index system contributes to bridging the gap between theoretical discourse and empirical assessment,offering apractical tool for monitoring,analyzing,and guiding modernization.By enabling a more precise and data-driven understanding of developmental stages and progress,it supports informed decision-making and enhances the capacity to respond effectively to evolving conditions.更多还原