【摘要】 基于世界投入产出数据库发布的世界投入产出表和社会经济账户，实证分析不同发展水平国家的全球价值链前向与后向参与程度对出口贸易隐含碳排放的影响，研究发现：在国家层面，发达国家或地区全球价值链双向参与程度的提升对出口贸易隐含碳排放具有抑制效应，而发展中国家或地区全球价值链双向参与程度的提升对出口贸易隐含碳排放具有促进效应。在产业层面，发达国家制造业的全球价值链前向参与程度对出口贸易隐含碳排放产生显著抑制作用，发展中国家非制造行业的全球价值链前向参与程度对出口贸易隐含碳排放产生显著促进作用；发达国家制造业和非制造业的全球价值链后向参与程度均对出口贸易隐含碳排放产生显著抑制作用，而发展中国家非制造行业的全球价值链双向参与程度均加剧了出口贸易隐含碳的排放。调节效应分析表明：数字化投入增强了发达国家全球价值链双向参与程度的减排效应，但加剧了发展中国家全球价值链后向参与程度的促排效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study,based on the World Input-Output Tables and Socio-Economic Accounts released by the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),makes empirical analysis on the impacts of forward and backward participation in global value chains(GVCs) on embodied carbon emissions in export trade across countries at different development stages.The results indicate that at the national level,increases in bidirectional GVC participation significantly reduce embodied carbon emissions in exports for developed countries or regions,whereas they lead to higher emissions for developing economies.In addition,at the industrial level,forward GVC participation in the manufacturing sectors of developed countries exerts a significant mitigating effect on embodied carbon emissions in exports,while non-manufacturing sectors in developing countries’ substantially boost such emissions.Moreover,backward GVC participation in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of developed countries significantly suppresses embodied carbon emissions in exports,whereas bidirectional GVC participation in the non-manufacturing sectors of developing countries exacerbate these emissions.Also,the moderation analysis reveals that digital investment reinforces the emission-reducing effect of bidirectional GVC participation in developed countries but intensifies the emission-increasing effect of backward GVC participation in developing countries.更多还原