【摘要】 养老金体系不同层次间的替代率如何合理分布，是养老金体系结构设计中最重要、影响最深远的问题。本文从理论机理、国际比较与政策优化三个维度探讨中国多层次养老金体系的替代率结构问题。研究发现：根据两基金分离理论，不同替代率结构实质上是在养老金待遇确定性和充足性之间的权衡。由于忽视了税费负担及截面工资年龄曲线等结构性因素，传统基于平均工资的替代率测度存在明显的系统性偏差，低估了我国第一层次的实际保障效能；与经济合作与发展组织成员国对比可以发现，我国第一层次净替代率水平偏高，对二、三层次产生了明显的挤出效应。本文认为，破解“一层独大”困境可以通过系统性与参量式改革予以解决，如将个人名义账户转记为国债投资以及降低养老保险缴费上限。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rational distribution of replacement rates among different tiers is one of the most important and far-reaching issues in the structural design of a pension system.This paper examines the replacementrate structure of China’s multi-tier pension system from three dimensions:theoretical mechanisms,international comparison,and policy optimisation.Based on the theory of two-fund separation,the study shows that different replacement-rate structures essentially represent a trade-off between the certainty and adequacy of pension benefits.The findings indicate that traditional measures of replacement rates based on average wages exhibit significant systematic bias,primarily because they neglect structural factors such as tax and contribution burdens and the cross-sectional age-earnings profile,thereby underestimating the actual protection provided by China’s first tier.A comparison with OECD countries shows that the net replacement rate of China’s first tier is relatively high,exerting a pronounced crowding-out effect on the second and third tiers.To address the problem of the excessive dominance of the first tier,this paper argues that both systemic and parametric reforms are needed,such as reclassifying notional individual accounts as investments in government bonds and lowering the upper limit on pension insurance contributions.更多还原