【摘要】 采用集成决策实验室分析法（DEMATEL）和对抗解释结构模型法（AISM）研究无人机碰撞风险的关键影响因素，并明确影响因素间的作用路径。首先在文献调研和专家评议的基础上，筛选并提取了16个无人机碰撞风险影响因素，随后利用DEMATEL-AISM方法，计算影响因素的中心度、原因度，通过构建对抗多层递阶结构模型，形成有向拓扑层级图，明确了风险因素的影响层次以及风险因素在各层次间的传递路径。研究结果表明，操作员疏忽或错误操作、操作员心理或健康状况不佳、飞行管理制度不完善、操作员缺乏专业培训或经验不足是无人机碰撞风险的关键影响因素；恶劣天气、低空障碍物、飞行管理制度不完善对无人机碰撞风险具有根本影响。重视这些影响因素可有效控制和预防无人机碰撞，能够为提高无人机飞行安全水平提供新的决策思路和方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study investigated the key influencing factors of UAV collision risk and clarified the interaction pathways among them by using the integrated Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL) method and Adversarial Interpretive Structural Modelling(AISM). On the basis of literature research and expert review, 16 UAV influencing factors of collision risk were first screened and extracted. The DEMATEL-AISM approach was then used to calculate the centrality and causality of these factors, and a multilayered recursive structural model was constructed to form a directed topological hierarchical diagram, which clarified the influencing levels of the risk factors as well as the transmission paths among them. The results showed that key factors influencing UAV collision risks included operator negligence or incorrect operation, poor psychological or health condition of the operator, imperfect flight management rules, and lack of professional training or experience of the operator; and adverse weather, low altitude obstacles and imperfect flight management rules had a fundamental influence on the UAV collision risk. Focusing on these influencing factors could effectively control and prevent UAV collisions which would provide new decisionmaking ideas and approaches for improving UAV flight safety.更多还原