【摘要】 农业科技园区是中国农业现代化建设过程中一项重要的制度创新，对推动中国农业绿色低碳可持续发展起到了重要作用。将国家农业科技园区建设作为一项准自然实验，选取2001—2022年286个地级及以上城市的面板数据，构建双重差分模型和中介效应模型，实证检验国家农业科技园区在技术进步和产业集聚的中介作用下对农业碳减排的影响。研究结果表明：国家农业科技园区显著减少了农业碳排放，平均处理效应为-1.269 4,但增加了农业碳排放强度，平均处理效应为1.703 3;国家农业科技园区可以通过促进技术进步影响农业碳减排，农业机械化水平提升显著增加了农业碳排放及农业碳排放强度，绿色技术进步显著减少了农业碳排放及农业碳排放强度；国家农业科技园区可以通过促进产业集聚影响农业碳排放强度，而且这种影响是非线性的；国家农业科技园区的碳减排效应存在着农地经营规模、粮食生产功能区和经济区域的异质性。因此，应加强绿色技术的推广与应用，深入贯彻落实“中央一号文件”,强化农业科技和装备支撑，从源头上减少碳排放。优化国家农业科技园区的规模和结构，降低单位农业生产总值的碳排放。发展产业链条、提高农产品价格，降低农业碳排放强度。实施绿色农业科技企业和园区认证制度，增强农业科技企业和园区绿色发展的内驱力。实施绿色农业补贴项目，精准施策，充分发挥国家农业科技园区的碳减排效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important institutional innovation in China’s agricultural modernization, National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks have played a crucial role in promoting green and low-carbon sustainable agricultural development.By 2023,297 National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks had passed official certification after being constructed in nine phases.Yet, can these parks effectively reduce carbon emissions?If they can, what underlies the mechanism, and does the effect exhibit heterogeneity?Leveraging the construction of National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks as a quasi-natural experiment, panel data from 286 Chinese cities(2001-2022) is utilized and difference-in-differences(DID) and mediation effect models are constructed to empirically investigate their impact on agricultural carbon emissions through the mediating roles of technological progress and industrial agglomeration.The results indicate that National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks significantly reduced agricultural carbon emissions, with an average treatment effect of-1.269 4,but increased agricultural carbon intensity, with an average treatment effect of 1.703 3;National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks facilitated agricultural carbon emission reduction by promoting technological progress.Increased mechanization significantly elevated both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon intensity, whereas advancements in green technology significantly reduced both; National Agricultural Science and Technology Parks affected agricultural carbon intensity through industrial agglomeration, exerting a non-linear impact.The carbon reduction effects of these parks exhibited heterogeneity based on farm size, grain production functional areas, and economic regions.To further leverage these effects, recommendations include: strengthening the promotion and application of green technologies, optimizing the scale and structure of national Agricultural Science and Technology Parks, developing industry chains, enhancing product pricing, and reducing agricultural carbon intensity.Additionally, it calls for implementing certification systems for green agricultural science and technology enterprises and parks, as well as targeted green agricultural subsidy projects to maximize the carbon reduction effects of national Agricultural Science and Technology Parks.更多还原