【摘要】 依据南水北调东线工程沿线四大湖泊近40 a长系列逐月径流资料，运用数理统计和时间序列分析方法，在全年尺度及春、夏、秋、冬季节尺度上，系统分析径流趋势、突变、周期及年内分配特征等演变规律。结果表明：骆马湖全年和夏季径流显著增加，东平湖全年、春季、夏季径流显著增加，其余时段变化趋势不显著；洪泽湖春季径流于1997年、骆马湖全年和夏季径流于1999年、东平湖全年和春季径流于2001年发生突变，其余未检测到显著突变；四大湖泊年径流第一主周期为14～21 a，第二主周期为6～9 a；各湖泊最大径流量出现月份由南向北逐渐推迟。在未来情景下，洪泽湖、南四湖主汛期可能提前，骆马湖、东平湖可能出现更集中的汛期径流。更多还原

【Abstract】 The East Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project is a critical infrastructure in China designed to alleviate water scarcity in northern regions through the interbasin transfer of water from the Yangtze River. The project incorporates multiple water sources along its route, including Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake, Nansi Lake, and Dongping Lake. Investigating the spatiotemporal distribution and evolutionary patterns of these water sources is crucial for enhancing regional operational efficiency, optimizing the allocation of water resources, and ensuring sustainable water security.The runoff data of the four major lakes(Hongze, Luoma, Nansi, Dongping) from 1980 to 2020 are systematically analyzed. The trends, abrupt changes, periodicity and annual distribution of runoff were studied by linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope estimate, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Pettitt test and wavelet analysis. The main findings of the study include:(1) Trends: The overall runoff of Hongze Lake and Nansi Lake showed a fluctuating trend, but the trend was not obvious, while the annual and summer runoff of Luoma Lake increased significantly, and the annual, spring and summer runoff of Dongping Lake increased significantly.(2) Abrupt changes: The spring runoff of Hongze Lake was significantly changed in 1997, the annual and summer runoff of Luoma Lake was significantly changed in 1999, and the annual and spring runoff of Dongping Lake was significantly changed in 2001, but no significant changes were detected in the rest.(3) Periodicity: The first main cycle of annual runoff of each water source is between 14 and 21 years. Compared with annual and summer runoff cycles, the length of other seasonal scale runoff cycles is different, which may reflect the influence of uncertain factors such as rainfall and groundwater recharge.(4) Intra-year distribution: The annual runoff distribution is unimodal, with a peak from July to September and gradually moving northward along the route. The concentration and timing of peak flows are expected to change in the future, with some water sources likely to experience earlier peak flows(such as Hongze Lake) and others likely to experience later peak flows(such as Luoma Lake).These findings provide evidence-based insights for the management and operation of the East Route of South-toNorth Water Transfers Project. A comprehensive understanding of runoff characteristics(including long-term trends, abrupt changes, periodicity, and seasonal distribution patterns-supports data-driven decision) making in water resource allocation, reservoir management, and water transfer scheduling. These findings ultimately contribute to enhancing water security, mitigating climate change impacts, and fostering sustainable regional development.Future research directions could explore the specific factors driving runoff trends and abrupt changes, such as climate change and land use change. In addition, incorporating these findings into predictive models and decision support systems will further improve the efficiency and sustainability of the project operations.更多还原