【摘要】 为控制煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故风险,建立故障树分析-最优/最劣法(BWM)/变精度粗糙集(VPRS)法组合赋权-多准则妥协解排序(VIKOR)风险分析模型,通过人为因素、设备因素、环境因素、管理因素、信息因素5项关键因素建立瓦斯爆炸事故风险的分析指标体系.用BWM确定指标的主观权重,用VPRS确定指标的客观权重,结合最小信息熵原理得出综合权重.根据相关规范及风险分析实践,结合VIKOR法确定风险的分级及对象的风险等级.以优化安全投入结构为切入点进行风险控制,用Cobb-Douglas生产函数对安全投入进行优化.结果表明,该模型对实例煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的风险评级为Ⅲ级,与实际情况相符.得到该模型较为安全的投入方案,能够有效控制风险且使各项资源得到充分利用.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to control the safety risk of coal mine gas explosion accident, the fault tree analysisbest worst method(BWM)/variable precision rough set(VPRS) combination empowering-vlsekriterijumska optimizacija kompromisno resenje(VIKOR) risk analysis model was established, the risk analysis index system of gas explosion accident was established from five aspects: human factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, management factors and information factors. The subjective weight of the index was determined by BWM, the objective weight determined by VPRS method, and the comprehensive weight obtained by combining the principle of minimum information entropy. According to the relevant norms and risk analysis practice combined with VIKOR method, the risk analysis grade and the risk level of the analysis object were determined.Risk control was carried out by optimizing the safety input structure,and Cobb-Douglas production function was used to optimize the safety input.The results showed that the model was effective for the risk rating of coal mine gas explosion accident,and its risk level wasⅢfor example,being consistent with the actual situation.A safe investment scheme was obtained,which could effectively control the risk and make full use of all resources.更多还原