【摘要】 介绍了以持续负荷曲线的洛桑德公式和数学家华罗庚提出的概率倍加原理为理论依据提出的年负荷曲线中大、正常、小3种方式区段分割计算方法，据此构建了反映3种方式区段内负荷变化规律对应的洛桑德公式。阐述了省地年典型日负荷曲线的建立和均值时点概念，以反映峰电量转移程度的响应度曲线斜率为媒介，由年典型日峰电量转移比率确定分时电价中峰电时段长度。在典型日负荷曲线峰、平、谷时段确定的基础上，完成3种方式区段内各自的峰、平、谷电量计算，实现了省、地年、日双重区分下峰平谷电量的精准预测。分析了网损率对峰谷电量比的影响，为确定分时电价结构提供了计算条件。以某省区的数据为例，在双重区分方法基础上，对代理购电后采取合约电量非均匀配置取得的效益进行了分析计算，对代理购电前后分时电价重大改革对社会、电网企业、用电企业三者的影响和取得的效益作了对比，肯定了在分时电价改革基础上，电力市场化持续改革取得的新成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the Rothander’s formula of the continuous load curve and the probability multiplier principle proposed by mathematician Hua Luogeng, three kinds of calculation modes of the annual load curve, namely, large, normal and small sections, are put forward in this paper. According to this, the Rothander’s formula is constructed to reflect the load variation law in the three modes of section. The establishment of provincial annual typical daily load curve and the concept of mean time point are expounded. With the slope of response curve reflecting the degree of peak electricity transfer as the medium, the peak electricity period length of TOU price is determined by the annual typical daily peak electricity transfer ratio. On the basis that the peak, flat and valley time of typical daily load curve is determined, the calculation of peak, flat and valley electricity in each section of the three modes is completed, and the accurate prediction of peak and flat and valley electricity with the double distinction of province-district, year-day is realized. The influence of network loss rate on peak-valley electricity ratio is analyzed, which provides the calculation conditions for determining the structure of TOU. Taking the data of a province as an example, the benefits obtained by adopting the non-uniform configuration of contract electricity after purchasing power through agents are analyzed and calculated on the basis of the double distinction method, and impacts on the society, power grid enterprises and power consumption enterprises and benefits obtained from the major reform of TOU electricity price before and after purchasing power through agents are also compared. Thus, the new achievements of the continuous reform of electricity market based on the reform of TOU price are confirmed.更多还原