【摘要】 城市群是中国城镇化的主体形态，研究城市群的人口吸引力变化，对于认识城市群在区域发展中的作用、评估区域政策效果有重要意义。本文基于第六、第七次全国人口普查1‰个体数据库的跨地市人口流动数据，从强度、范围、空间均衡性等三个维度考察2010—2020年中国城市群的人口吸引力变化，研究发现：(1)强度方面，长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大城市群的吸引力远强于其他城市群，吸引了全国一半以上的流动人口；10年间东部和中西部城市群的吸引力差距缩小，东部多数城市群吸引流动人口的规模增长较慢，占全国的比重下降，其中长三角下降最多，中西部城市群的流动人口规模增长较快，吸引力提升，其中成渝和长江中游提升最快。吸引范围方面，东部城市群的流动人口大半来自省外，仅山东半岛的吸引范围较小；中西部多数城市群的流动人口主要来自省内，但天山北坡城市群主要吸引跨省流动人口。10年间人口就近流动的趋势加强。均衡度方面，东部多数城市群的内部较为均衡，长三角和珠三角的均衡度明显提升，但京津冀和辽中南城市群内部仍不均衡；多数中西部城市群的吸引力集中在核心城市，10年间成渝、北部湾和天山北坡等城市群的均衡度有所提升。(2)综合来看，城市群三维度的人口吸引力相互关联。东部城市群的人口吸引力更强，主要吸引跨省流动人口，城市群内部大多比较均衡，整体发育更成熟。但中西部城市群开始发育时，其人口吸引力特征在10年间并未完全向着东部城市群的特征演变，差别是吸引省际流动人口的占比没有提升，而是更加强化成为省内的人口流入中心。(3)城市群人口吸引力的多维特征随着城市群经济增长、核心城市发展和功能外溢而演化。最后，基于各地区城市群的发展目标和人口吸引力的特征演变，对城市群的未来发展方向提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mega-city regions(MCRs) are the main spatial pattern of urbanization in China.Studying changes in the population attractiveness of these regions is significant for understanding their role in regional development and evaluating the effects of regional development policies. Using data on inter-prefecture migration from the 1‰ individual database of the national censuses conducted in 2010 and 2020, this paper analyzes the changes in population attractiveness within China’s mega-city regions from three dimensions: intensity,range, and spatial evenness. The results show that:(1) In terms of intensity, the three major MCRs—the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region—are far more attractive than others. They altogether attracted over half of all inter-prefecture migrants in China. The attractiveness gap between MCRs in the east and those in the central and western regions narrowed from 2010 to 2020. Most eastern MCRs saw slow growth in their migrants, leading to a decline in their share of China’s total number of migrants. The Yangtze River Delta experienced the most significant reduction. In contrast, central and western MCRs grew more rapidly in terms of migrants, becoming increasingly attractive. Notably, the Chengdu-Chongqing MCR and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River MCR experienced the fastest growth. In terms of attractiveness range, eastern MCRs mainly attract inter-provincial migrants, with the Shandong Peninsula MCR attracting population from a relatively small area.In contrast, central and western MCRs mainly attract intra-provincial migrants, although the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains MCR is an exception, attracting inter-provincial migrants. Over the past ten years, there has been a noticeable trend of people moving shorter distances. Regarding the evenness of attractiveness within MCRs, most eastern MCRs exhibit a relatively even attractiveness among their cities. Notably, the evenness of the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta significantly increased from 2010 to 2020. However, the BeijingTianjin-Hebei and Central and Southern Liaoning MCRs show uneven attractiveness. In most central and western MCRs, the appeal is concentrated in core cities, although the spatial evenness of attractiveness has improved in the Chengdu-Chongqing, Beibu Gulf, and the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains MCRs.(2) The three dimensions of population attractiveness are correlated. Compared to the MCRs in the central and western regions, those in the eastern region exhibit stronger attractiveness, mainly attract inter-provincial migrants, the attractiveness of each city is more evenly distributed, and the overall development of eastern MCRs is more advanced. However, as the MCRs in the central and western regions began to develop over the past decade, their population attractiveness did not fully evolve to match the characteristics of the eastern MCRs. The difference is that the proportion of inter-provincial migrants attracted by central and western MCRs has decreased, and these MCRs have consistently remained centers of population inflow within their respective provinces.(3) The multi-dimensional characteristics of population attractiveness change as the economic growth of MCRs progresses and as core cities develop and their functions spill over. Finally, based on the development goals of MCRs in different regions and the evolving characteristics of population attractiveness, we propose policy suggestions for the future development of MCRs.更多还原