【摘要】 主体功能区战略是我国经济发展和生态环境保护的大战略，决定了我国国土空间开发、利用和保护的基本格局，对于引导社会经济要素流动正发挥关键作用，其中引导人口均衡分布是核心功能。黄河流域作为我国重要的生态安全屏障和工农业地区，城市、农业和生态地域功能复杂多样，人口要素流动显著。本研究基于主体功能区视角，使用年均人口变动率、随机森林及多尺度地理加权回归等方法对黄河流域主体功能区人口收缩格局及影响因素进行分析，综合评估各类主体功能区在2010年规划颁布前后引导人口变化的特征及效果。结果表明：(1)2000—2020年黄河流域52%的区县出现人口收缩现象。人口收缩区县占比由2000—2010年的30%增加至2010—2020年的64%，范围和程度明显加剧。(2)对不同主体功能区的人口引导作用有待加强。主体功能区规划颁布以来，城市化地区区域人口增长极空间带动效应不强；农产品主产区形成汾渭及黄淮海平原收缩带，但上游仍存在人口增长极；部分重点生态功能地区并未有效实现人口疏解。(3)对于不同地域功能地区，地理优势是城市化地区引导人口集聚的重要因素；消费、教育以及NDVI水平对于重点生态功能区人口产生显著吸引力；农产品主产区亟待实现产业及经济转型。夜间灯光水平、人均财政收支、社会消费水平、医疗发展水平对人口收缩与集聚产生影响的作用强度空间分异显著。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Major Function Oriented Zones(MFOZs) strategy represents a foundational national framework for China’s economic development and ecological conservation,fundamentally shaping the spatial patterns of territorial development, utilization, and protection. This strategy plays a critical role in guiding the flow of socio-economic factors,with balanced population distribution serving as its core objective. As a vital ecological security barrier and a key industrial-agricultural region in China, the Yellow River Basin exhibits complex spatial functional diversity encompassing urban, agricultural, and ecological systems,alongside significant population mobility. From the MFOZs perspective, this study investigates the spatial patterns and driving factors of population shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin using methodologies including annual population change rate, Random Forest algorithm, and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression(MGWR). We comprehensively evaluate the characteristics and effectiveness of population guidance across different MFOZs before and after the implementation of the 2010 national planning. The findings reveal:(1) During 2000-2020, 52% of counties in the Yellow River Basin experienced population shrinkage. The proportion of shrinking counties increased from 30% in 2000-2010 to 64% in 2010-2020, with both the spatial extent and severity intensifying significantly.(2) The population guidance effectiveness across different Major Function Oriented Zones(MFOZs) requires strengthening.Since the implementation of the MFOZs planning: Urbanized zones have shown limited spatial spillover effects from regional population growth poles; Agricultural production zones formed shrinking belts in the Fenwei and Huanghuaihai Plains, while retaining population growth poles in upstream areas; Some key ecological function zones failed to achieve effective population relocation.(3) For regions with distinct territorial functions: Geographic advantages are critical factors driving population agglomeration in urbanized zones; Consumption capacity,educational resources, and NDVI levels significantly attract labor forces in key ecological function Zones; Agricultural production zones urgently require industrial and economic transformation. The spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of impacts from nighttime light intensity, fiscal revenue-expenditure per capita, social consumption levels, and healthcare development on population shrinkage and agglomeration is pronounced.更多还原