【摘要】 导水裂隙带发育高度是矿井防治水及安全开采的重要依据。由于陕蒙矿区地层沉积环境和沉积过程的特殊性,使得该区域导水裂隙发育高度与传统认识差别较大。考虑到目前围绕陕蒙矿区导水裂隙带发育高度计算方法缺失问题,以鄂尔多斯市营盘壕煤矿2217工作面为工程背景,采用UDEC模拟研究了不同开采进度下导水裂隙带发育规律及演化特征,分析了大能量事件与导水裂隙带发育的关联关系,进而基于GA-SVR算法,建立了区域导水裂隙带发育高度精准预测方法。结果表明:直罗组砂岩巨厚的特性使得其在覆岩运动中表现出坚硬岩层的特点,裂隙带在其下充分发育,稳定后也形成“马鞍形”;微震监测数据能精准反映区域导水裂隙带发育高度,预测相对误差仅为3.90%;建立的导水裂隙带高度预测模型的决定系数R2为0.81,相对平均误差r为14.55%,预测精度显著优于经验公式(R2<0,r=59.57%)。研究成果对于陕蒙矿区保水开采与安全生产设计及矿井水防治具有重要的实践意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The development height of water conducting fracture zones(WCFZ) is an important basis for mine water prevention and safety mining. Due to the special sedimentary environment and process in the Shaanxi-Mongolia mining area,the height of WCFZ differs greatly from traditional understanding in this region. Considering the current lack of calculation methods for the height of WCFZ in the Shaanxi-Mongolia mining area,a simulation using UDEC was conducted on the development laws and evolutionary characteristics of WCFZ under different mining progress at the 2217 working face of the Yingpanhao coal mine in Ordos city. The relationship between large energy events and the development of WCFZ was analyzed,and a precise prediction method for regional WCFZ height was established based on the GA-SVR algorithm. The results showed that the characteristics of the thick sandstone layer of Zhuiluo formation give it the characteristics of a hard rock layer during overlying rock movement,and the fracture zone underneath it develops fully and stabilizes into a " saddle shape". Microseismic monitoring data can accurately reflect the height of WCFZ in the region,with a relative error of only 3. 90% in prediction. The coefficient of determination R2 of the established WCFZ height prediction model is 0. 81,the relative average error r is 14. 55%,and the prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of empirical formulas(R2<0,r= 59. 57%). The research results have important practical significance for water conservation mining,safety production design,and mine water control in the Shaanxi-Mongolia mining area.更多还原