【摘要】 目的 为了更好更快满足院前急救服务需求,对2020年每日24小时段受理要车电话数量展开研究分析,根据受理要车电话数量存在规律,提出有效提高院前急救服务运行效率及管理水平的相关措施。方法 采用线性回归模型,通过应用python编程语言,基于sklearn机器学习库对2020年1月—12月每日24小时段数据进行线性回归建模,获得线性回归模型具体系数值。结果 2020年12月5日、15日、25日24小时段受理要车电话真实数据及模型预估数值及变化趋势比对验证显示,整体数值接近、变化趋势一致。结论 线性回归模型很好建模了受理要车电话数量及变化趋势,应进一步扩展线性回归模型等信息化手段在院前急救领域中的广泛应用;院前急救调度指挥中心受理要车电话数量24小时段差异存在规律,有效指导调度指挥座席、院前急救车组人员及救护车数量等资源调整;受理要车电话数量秋季最高,其次为夏季、冬季,春季最低,助力不同季节做好相关院前急救资源储备调整及相关应急措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective In order to meet the needs of pre-hospital emergency services better and faster, the number of daily 24-hour ambulance calls received in 2020 was studied and analyzed. According to the rules of the number of ambulance calls received, relevant measures were proposed to effectively improve the operation efficiency and management level of pre-hospital emergency services.Methods The linear regression model was adopted. By applying python programming language and based on sklearn machine learning library, the linear regression modeling was conducted on the 24-hour daily data from January to December 2020, and the specific parameter values of the linear regression model are obtained.Results On December 5, 15, and 25, 2020, the real data of the accepted ambulance call,the estimated values of the model and the trend of change were compared and verified, and the overall values were close and the trend of change was consistent.Conclusion Linear regression model can model the number and change trend of receiving requests for ambulance. It is necessary to further expand the application of information means such as linear regression model in the field of pre-hospital emergency care. The number of ambulance calls received by the pre-hospital emergency dispatch command center varies within 24 hours, and effectively guides the adjustment of resources such as dispatch command seats, pre-hospital emergency vehicle crew and ambulance number; the number of calls received for ambulance requests was the highest in autumn, followed by summer and winter, and the lowest in spring,helping to adjust the reserve of pre-hospital emergency resources and relevant emergency measures in different seasons.更多还原