【摘要】 本文基于风险扩展的贸易引力模型，利用2016—2020年中国对72个国家(地区)的农业直接投资数据，实证检验了东道国农业投资风险对中国对外农业直接投资规模的影响。研究发现：(1)现阶段中国对外农业直接投资既不是单纯的风险规避也不是完全的风险偏好，而是同东道国农业投资风险呈倒U形关系。现阶段中国在大部分国家的农业投资处于风险寻求的“黄金期”(倒U形曲线左侧的样本约占72.78%)。(2)企业营业收入水平削弱了东道国农业投资风险和中国对外农业直接投资规模间的倒U形关系，企业的“趋利”现象使得其对风险的敏感度整体下降，进入和退出东道国市场的速度均有所减缓，放大了风险。(3)中介机制检验表明，东道国农业投资风险通过改变东道国制度质量进而影响中国对其农业直接投资规模。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the trade gravity model of risk expansion, the paper uses the data of China’s agricultural direct investment in 72 countries from 2016 to 2020 to empirically test the impact of the host country agricultural investment risk on the scale of China’s foreign agricultural direct investment. The study found that:(1)At the present stage, China’s foreign agricultural direct investment is neither pure risk aversion nor complete risk preference, but with the host country agricultural investment risk of the U-shaped relationship.At present, China’s agricultural investment in most countries is in the “golden period” of risk seeking(the sample on the left side of the inverted U curve accounts for about 72.78%).(2)The operating income level of the enterprise weakens the inverted U-shaped relationship between the agricultural investment risk of the host country and the scale of China’s foreign agricultural direct investment.The “profit-seeking” phenomenon of enterprises makes their overall sensitivity to risk decline, access and exit from host markets have slowed, enlarged the space for risk seeking.(3)The mediation mechanism test shows that, the agricultural investment risk of the host country affects the scale of Chinese direct investment in agriculture by changing the system quality of the host country.更多还原