【摘要】 基于全球产业网络节点间的关联关系测度中国国内国际双循环水平，并基于复杂网络法构建量化指标识别“双循环”格局演进过程中面临高风险的产业。研究发现：(1)“外循环”驱动中国经济发展的边际效应正在减弱，以“内循环为主”成为包括中国在内的全球大国的共同特征并有强化趋势；(2)产业外循环水平相对指数较高的中国产业与“亟待攻克核心技术”领域高度重合，这些产业面临较高的“卡脖子”风险；(3)“产业节点差异性”指数显示，中国资源类产业和高附加值制造业的海外关联产业的集中度比较高，这些产业亟待打造“替代来源产业备份系统”;(4)“产业边”中间中心度显示，在由中间品流动所形成的全球产业网络体系中，有超过1/3的中国制造业所在“产业路径”中的关键环节“自主可靠性”亟待提升。基于以上发现，提出政策建议：加快推进国内统一大市场建设，提高原始创新和自主创新的能力与质量，通过区域内城市优势互补、规模互借、产业共生和创新协同打造安全可靠的区域产业链体系，以及加快推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展，为产业链的全球布局开辟更多元化的市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper measures the level of domestic and international double cycle in China based on the correlation between global industrial network nodes, and identifies the industries facing high risks in the evolution process of “Dual Circulation” pattern based on the construction of quantitative indicators by complex network method. The study found that:(1) The marginal effect of “external circulation” which driving China’s economic development is weakening, while “domestic cycle mainly” has become the common feature of global powers, including China, and this feature has a tendency to strengthen;(2) China’s industries with a relatively high level of E-I index highly coincides with the field of “urgent to conquer core technologies”, and these industries face a high risk of “bottleneck”;(3) The “disparity” index shows that the concentration of China’s resource industries and high value-added manufacturing industries is relatively high, and these industries urgently need to build “alternative source industry backup system”;(4) The “EB” index shows that in the global industrial network system formed by the flow of intermediate products, more than one-third of the key link “independent reliability” in the “industrial path” of China’s manufacturing industry need to be improved urgently. Based on the findings, policy suggestions: accelerate the construction of a unified domestic market, improve the ability and quality of original innovation and independent innovation, create a safe and reliable regional industrial chain system through the complementary advantages of cities in the region, mutual borrowing of scale, industrial symbiosis and innovation synergy, in order to accelerate the high-quality development of the “Belt and Road” and open up a more diversified market for the global layout of the industrial chain.更多还原