【摘要】 目的 了解某市糖尿病患者死亡特征，为本地区糖尿病的综合防制提供参考依据。方法 整群抽取中国疾病预防控制中心人口死亡信息登记系统中2015年1月1日-2019年12月31日全市死亡数据，从中选择根本死亡原因为糖尿病(ICD-10:E10-E14)的死亡案例共1781例，计算糖尿病粗死亡率、标化死亡率、变化百分比(PC)、年度变化百分比(APC)、平均减寿年数与平均潜在工作损失年数、并发症死亡顺位，利用灰色模型GM(1,1)拟合并预测糖尿病死亡率。结果 2015年-2019年某市糖尿病粗死亡率9.97/10万，标化率6.46/10万，5年间死亡率呈上升趋势，APC为10.41%,t=5.158,P=0.014。死亡率随年龄增长而升高，40岁后死亡率开始增加，70岁后上升速度加快，≥85岁达到高峰，男性死亡年龄早于女性，男女死亡率无差异。平均减寿年数与平均潜在工作损失年数均为男性高于女性、急性并发症高于肾脏并发症；糖尿病肾脏并发症顺位始终位于首位，急性并发症顺位下降，多个并发症顺位提升。模型预测方程Y(t)=106.237942e0.0831(t-1)-98.407942,C=0.098≤0.35,P=1≥0.95，模型精度等级为1级，预计2020年糖尿病死亡率为12.83/10万，2021年为13.94/10万，2022年达15.15/10万。结论 某市糖尿病死亡率呈上升趋势，糖尿病的防制仍是今后一段时期疾病防控的重点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objectives To understand the death characteristics of diabetes mellitus in a city, so as to provide a reference for the comprehensive prevention and control of diabetes mellitus in this area. Methods The data of all deaths in a city from January 1st,2015 to December 31st,2019 was extracted in cluster sampling from the Population Death Information Registration System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and a total of 1,781deaths of the cause of diabetes(ICD-10:E10-E14)were selected, the standardized mortality rate, percent change(PC), annual percentage change(APC), the average number of years of life lost, the average number of years of potential loss of work, the sequence of complications death were calculated. The grey model(GM) was used to predict the death rate of diabetes. Results Between 2015 and 2019, the average annual gross mortality rate in a city was 9.97/100 000, the standardized mortality rate was 6.46/100 000, the five-year mortality rate was on the rise and APC was 10.41%(t=5.158, P=0.014).Mortality increased with age, the mortality rate began to increase after age 40 and rose after 70 then at a peak of ≥85, age of death was earlier for men, there was no difference in mortality between men and women. The average number of years of life reduction and the average potential loss of work were higher in men than in women, and the acute complications of diabetes were higher than those of kidney;Diabetic renal complications always came first, the mortality of acute diabetic complications decreased, multiple complications were promoted in sequence. Model prediction equation was Y(t)=106.237942e0.0831(t-1)-98.407942(C=0.098≤0.35, P=1≥0.95), the accuracy of the model was level one. Diabetes mortality was expected to be 12.83/100 000 in 2020, 13.94/100 000 in 2021 and 15.15/100 000 in 2022. Conclusions Diabetes mortality rate was on the rise, the prevention and control of diabetes in the future was still the focus of disease prevention and control.更多还原