【摘要】 交通拥挤会影响常规公交线路行程时间的可靠性，给公交运营以及居民出行带来不便.针对这一问题，提出了可靠指数、可靠度来评价常规公交线路行程时间可靠性，并以上海市为例，基于GPS数据分析了线路和运行信息与行程时间可靠性间的关联，构建了逻辑回归模型进行定量分析.结果表明：站点数目、行程时间、运行时段、是否工作日以及公交通过的区域类型对可靠度有显著影响.当站点数与21差距的绝对值越小，当行程时间与3 886 s相差越大，可靠性越高.更多还原

【Abstract】 Traffic congestion will affect the reliability of travel time of conventional bus lines, and bring inconvenience to bus operation and residents’ travel. To solve this problem, reliability index and reliability were proposed to evaluate the reliability of travel time of conventional bus lines. Taking Shanghai as an example, based on GPS data, the relationship between route and operation information and travel time reliability was analyzed, and a logistic regression model was constructed for quantitative analysis. The results show that the number of stops, travel time, running time, working days or not, and the type of area where public transportation passes have significant influence on the reliability. When the absolute value of the difference between the number of stations and 21 is smaller, and the difference between the travel time and 3886 s is larger, the reliability is higher.更多还原