【摘要】 基于川、鄂、苏、黑四省1 712份问卷数据,利用Probit模型分析转向不同级别城镇(乡镇级、县市级、地市级、省会级)农业转移人口承包经营权退出意愿差异及影响因素。结果表明:从样本总体看,城镇级别对农业转移人口经营权退出和承包权退出意愿均有显著影响,相较于转向乡镇级的农村人口,转向省会级的农业转移人口最不愿意退出经营权,转向地市级的农业转移人口最不愿意退出承包权;省际差异下,相较于转向乡镇的农业转移人口,转向省内地市级的农业转移人口最不愿意退出经营权和承包权,转向省外省会级的农业转移人口最不愿意退出经营权,转向省外地市级的农业转移人口最不愿意退出承包权;转向各级别城镇农业转移人口经营权和承包权退出意愿的影响因素有显著差异。对此,提出建立农业转移人口城市转向动态机制、构建分类化多层次退出机制、注重乡镇和县域小城市发展等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of 1712 questionnaires in Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang provinces, the Probit model was used to analyze the differences and influencing factors of the willingness to withdraw from the contracted management rights of agricultural transfer population to different levels of towns( township, county, city, prefecture and provincial capital). The results show that from the overall perspective of the sample, the urban level has a significant impact on the withdrawal of the management right and the willingness to withdraw the contracting right of the agricultural transfer population. Compared with the agricultural transfer population transferred to the township level, the agricultural transfer population transferred to the provincial capital level is the least willing to withdraw from the management right, and the agricultural transfer population transferred to the municipal level is the least willing to withdraw from the contracting right. Under the inter-provincial differences, compared with the agricultural transfer population turning to villages and towns, the agricultural transfer population turning to the prefecture-level cities in the province is the least willing to withdraw from the management right and the contracting right, and the agricultural transfer population turning to the provincial capital level is the least willing to withdraw from the management right, and the agricultural transfer population turning to the prefecture-level cities outside the province is the least willing to withdraw from the contracting right; there are significant differences in the factors affecting the willingness to withdraw from the management right and the willingness to withdraw from the contracting right of the urban agricultural transfer population at all levels. It is necessary to try to establish a dynamic mechanism for the urban shift of agricultural transfer population, construct a classified multi-level exit mechanism, and pay attention to the development of small towns and counties.更多还原