【摘要】 岷江上游径流演变特征分析可为成都平原水资源开发利用与管理提供科学依据。基于紫坪铺站1937—2018年月径流资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法、Spearman法、R/S分析法、有序聚类法和小波分析等方法分析了岷江上游径流的年内年际变化特征、丰枯特性、趋势性、突变性以及周期性。研究结果表明:（1）岷江上游径流年内分配由远及近呈均匀向不均匀再向均匀转变的特征,1980s径流年内分配不均匀程度最高,2010s径流年内分配不均匀程度最低。（2）径流在1990s年际变化最大,在1960s年际变化最小,各年代年径流分布的偏态性不一。（3）径流正逐渐由偏丰、丰向偏枯、枯转变。（4）年径流在1937—2018年期间呈显著下降趋势,变化幅度约为-0.96m³s^-1/a,在未来一段时间内年径流仍可能呈下降趋势;年径流在1968年发生突变;年径流表现为多时间尺度变化,存在6年和13年的主周期。更多还原

【Abstract】 The analysis of runoff variation characteristics in the upstream of Minjiang River can provide scientific basis for the utilization and management of water resources in Chengdu Plain. Based on the runoff time series from 1937 to 2018 at Zipingpu hydrological station, the present study analyzes the intra-annual distribution, inter-annual fluctuations, variation of high-water period and dry period, the trend, the abrupt change and periods of runoff in the study area. The results show that（1）Distribution of intra-annual runoff is characterized by a change from uniform to non-uniform and then to uniform. The highest degree of non-uniform distribution occurred in 1980 s, and the lowest degree of non-uniform distribution occurred in 2010 s;（2）The inter-annual variation of runoff in upstream of Minjiang River fluctuated the most in 1990 s, and the least in 1960 s. The skewness of annual runoff distribution is different in different periods;（3）The annual runoff is changing from abundant water periods to dry periods;（4）The annual runoff indicated a significant downward trend with a rate of-0.96 m³s^-1/a in the past 82 years and could keep downward trend in the future. The abrupt change point of annual runoff occurred in the year of 1968, with the periodic characteristics of 6-year and 13-year scales.更多还原