【摘要】 为了有效预报山火发生导致的大面积电网线路跳闸停电事故,文中利用2008—2017年广东电网山火点数、过火面积和主网跳闸频次数据,研究了该省电网山火灾害年际变化趋势并提出了一种基于偏最小二乘(PLS)法的电网山火风险预警模型。研究发现粤东和粤北地区为山火敏感易发地带,且其架空线路覆盖区内山火发生有明显增加趋势。另外,文中基于历史气象数据、植被数据和地形数据,采用PLS挑选主要的山火预报影响因子,结合应用统计学原理建立了一种优化的电网山火风险预警模型。通过广东电网实际运行山火跳闸案例测试,验证了文中所提方法预测电网山火发生时间和地点的准确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to effectively forecast large area power grid line trip blackout caused by mountain fire,spatial-temporal characteristics of fire hazards in Guangdong power grid mountains are studied by using the data of fire spots number,the area of overfire and the tripping frequency of main network from 2008 to 2017. A model of optimized risk early warning system based on partial least square( PLS) is proposed. It is found that the east and north of Guangdong are sensitive to mountain fires,and the occurrence of mountain fires in the overhead line coverage area has an obvious increasing trend. In addition,based on historical meteorological data,vegetation data and topographic data,the PLS method is used to select the main influencing factors of mountain fire prediction,and an optimized risk early warning model of mountain fire in power grid is proposed based on the principle of applied statistics. The validity and practicability of proposed method are verified by the case test of mountain fire trip in Guangdong power grid.更多还原