【摘要】 为揭示区域公路交通与新型城镇化之间的关系,基于黑龙江省2005—2015年时间序列数据,利用计量经济学方法对区域公路交通与新型城镇化之间的协整关系进行实证研究,构建了协整方程和误差修正模型。选取公路里程、公路密度、客运量、旅客周转量、货运量、货物周转量和营运车辆拥有量7个指标表征区域公路交通发展水平,选取城镇化率表征城镇化发展水平。利用ADF单位根检验法,检验了区域公路交通与新型城镇化发展水平时间序列数据的平稳性。利用Johansen检验法和Granger因果关系检验法,检验了区域公路交通和新型城镇化之间的长期均衡关系和因果关系。利用误差修正模型分析了区域公路交通与新型城镇化之间的短期相互影响。检验结果表明:在5%的显著性水平下,黑龙江省公路里程、客运量、旅客周转量与城镇化率为一阶平稳序列,公路里程与城镇化率一阶协整;公路里程与城镇化率之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,黑龙江省公路里程对城镇化率的弹性为11.364;公路里程与城镇化率之间具有双向的Granger因果关系,区域公路交通发展能推动城镇化的进程,城镇化的进程也能加快区域公路交通发展,但具有一定的时滞。研究表明:城镇化率的增长可通过区域公路里程的增加来解释,要遵循"适度超前"的原则规划区域公路交通运输体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reveal the relationship between regional highway traffic and new pattern urbanization, based on the time series data of 2005—2015 in Heilongjiang Province, the co-integration relationship between regional highway traffic and new pattern urbanization is empirically analyzed by using econometric method, and the co-integration equation and the error correction model are established. Seven indicators including highway mileage, highway density, passenger traffic volume, passenger turnover volume, freight volume, freight turnover volume and operating vehicle ownership are selected to represent the development level of regional highway traffic, and urbanization rate is selected to represent the development level of urbanization. The stability of time series data of regional highway traffic and new pattern urbanization development level are examined by ADF unit root test. The long-term equilibrium and the causality between regional highway traffic and new pattern urbanization are examined by Johansen test and Granger causality test. The short-term interaction influence between regional highway traffic and new pattern urbanization is analyzed by error correction model. The test result shows that(1) at 5% significance level, the highway mileage, passenger volume, passenger turnover and urbanization rate in Heilongjiang Province are first-order stable sequences, and the highway mileage and urbanization rate are first-order co-integration;(2) there is a long-term equilibrium co-integration relationship between highway mileage and urbanization rate, and the elastic coefficient of highway mileage to urbanization rate in Heilongjiang Province is 11.364;(3) there is a two-way Granger causality between highway mileage and new pattern urbanization, the development of regional highway traffic can promote the process of new urbanization, and the process of new urbanization can also speed up the development of highway traffic, but there is a certain time lag. The investigation shows that the increment of urbanization rate can be explained by increasing of regional road mileage, and the principle of moderate advance should be followed in planning regional highway transport system.更多还原