【摘要】 一直以来区域低碳发展政策以传统行政区划为基础,中东西边界明显,单纯以发展阶段、资源禀赋为主要因素指导国家温室气体控制目标的分解,难以真正促进发展模式的根本转变。以主体功能区划为依托的国土空间开发格局为区域低碳发展政策特别是区域重新分类提供了新的抓手,但囿于数据问题,现有研究在数量和质量上都有欠缺。本文利用全国县级单元主体功能数据库,"自下而上"汇总各省主体功能信息,结合社会经济发展状况,初步确定了各地区的综合主体功能。数据完整的29个省区被划分为整体优化型、战略结合型1、战略结合型2、生态屏障型、粮食安全型、固农求工型和混合型(共3类混合型)等9个类型,其发展内容、重点不尽相同。再结合各地区所处工业化阶段和碳排放强度水平,利用Kmeans方法对这些省区进行了聚类分析,得到了考虑主体功能定位背景下应承担"差别化"降碳任务的省区分类结果。总体而言,整体优化型和部分战略结合型应该首先实现碳排放峰值,生态屏障型也应该接受较为严格的降碳目标,而粮食安全型和固农求工型省区的降碳目标呈现出"光谱化"趋势——粮食安全与生态屏障混合型应设定较高目标,而粮食安全和战略结合混合型、粮食安全和固农求工型应有较为温和的降碳目标,单纯的固农求工型省区尚有较多发展空间。最后,研究提出,在"十四五"温室气体控制目标和2030年达峰目标分解中应将国土空间开发格局作为一个因素纳入考虑范围中;"西部大开发"区域政策应以"西部大保护"为前提,西部省区应该承担相对比较严格的降碳目标,而不是目前的宽松目标。同时,对部分生态屏障型省区还应该提出提升碳汇的要求。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional provincial authority has been taken as the boundary of regional low-carbon development for a long time,causing the problems of clear distinction on East,Middle and West regions in China. In particular,the provincial disaggregation of national low-carbon target purely based on the factors of development stage and resource endowment principle does not help the transition of development pathway. The spatial land-use pattern,based on the Major Function-oriented Zone(MFZ) Planning,provides a new tool to re-consider the regional low-carbon development,and particularly,on re-clustering of provinces. However,the quantity or quality of existing studies are not satisfactory largely because of lack of data. Using the county-level MFZ database established by the research team to generate the quantitative information by ’bottom-up’approach,and integrating the social and economic development indicators,the comprehensive major-functioning of 29 provinces whose data is available is identified. In general,these provinces are classified into 9 categories,i. e. Optimized Development Type(OPT),Strategic Development Type 1(SDT1),Strategic Development Type 2(SDT2),Ecological Barrier Type(EBT),Food Security Type(FST),Agriculture to Industrialization type(AIT),and mixed types among two of above types(3 mixed types in total). Different type should has different development content and focus. Together with the indicators showing industrialized stage and carbon emission intensity,Kmeans clustering analysis method is used to group the provinces that should have differentiated mitigation target when considering their major functions. The results shows the carbon peak should be observed first in OPT and part of SDT regions,and then the EBT regions should be assigned relatively strict mitigation target as well. Meanwhile,the targets for FST and AIT regions might be spectrum-distributed,as the mixed FST/EBT should bear strict targets,FST/SDT and FST/AIT may have moderate targets,and the pure AIT should be allocated more emission space. In the end,this study proposes that when disaggregating mitigation target of 14 thFive Year Plan and2030 peaking target,spatial land-use pattern should be integrated in seriously as one of indicators,and the ’Go West’Programme should take’West Protection’as the priority. To some extent,the western provinces should bear more strict carbon limits,but not the existing moderate targets. Meanwhile,part of EBT provinces should assign the requirement of carbon sink promotion.更多还原