【摘要】 利用2008—2015年间22个样本城市的数据,构造房价收入比指标,构建面板固定效应模型,并采用全面可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位数回归的方法,考察了家庭债务与房价之间自增强效应及其作用渠道。研究发现:样本城市的家庭债务与房价之间存在较明显的自增强效应。房价上涨通过抵押效应和财富效应渠道带来家庭债务规模的扩大,且财富效应渠道的解释力度更大;家庭债务规模的扩大通过资产负债表效应和预期效应渠道推动了房价进一步上涨,且资产负债表效应渠道的解释力度更大。因此,政府应实施因城而异的差别化调控政策,保障房地产市场和信用市场的平稳发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using the statistical data of 22 sample cities from 2008 to 2015, the housing price to income ratio and a fixed effect model are constructed. The self-reinforcing effects between household debt and housing prices and the transmission mechanism are investigated by using the method of comprehensive feasible generalized least squares(FGLS) and quantile regression. The findings are as follows: there is a self-reinforcing effects between the household debt and the housing prices in the city. The rise of the housing prices increases the scale of the urban household debt through the mortgage effect channel and the wealth effect channel, and the wealth effect is more explanatory. The rise of the household debt scale increases the housing prices through the balance sheet effect channel and the expected effect channel, and the balance sheet effect channel is more explanatory. Therefore, the government should implement differentiated control policies that vary from city to city to ensure the stable development of the real estate market and credit market.更多还原