【摘要】 研究三化螟为害丛率与为害株率的关系,建立相关模型,为该害虫的预测预报和综合治理提供科学依据。选取12块田间三化螟种群发生的调查数据,用为害株率(y)和为害丛率(x)分别拟合线性函数、一元二次函数、一元三次函数、对数函数、幂函数和指数函数6种不同模型,并用未建模的5块稻田资料进行验证应用。结果表明,各模型相关系数均达极显著水平,但综合Q、S yx值分析,以一元三次函数模型y=-2.994 9+0.631 4x-0.017 1x 2+0.000 2x 3为最优(Q和Syx值最小)。参与验证应用的4个模型,预测精度均在83%以上,其中一元三次函数模型精度高达92.6%。另外,利用优选出的数学模型建立了三化螟为害株率速查表。生产中可以应用拟合的最优数学模型对田间三化螟发生为害进行监测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The relationship between the rate of mites and the rate of harmful plants was studied, and relevant models were established to provide a scientific basis for the prediction and comprehensive management of the pests. The survey data of 12 populations of stem borer in the field were selected, and the linear function, the unary quadratic function, the unary cubic function, the logarithmic function, the power function and the index were fitted as the plant damage rate(y) and the mite damage rate(x), respectively. The function is based on six different models and is validated by using five un-modeled rice fields. The results showed that the correlation coefficient of each model reached a very significant level, but the comprehensive Q and Syx value analysis was optimal with the one-dimensional cubic function model y=-2.994 9 + 0.631 4 x-0.017 1 x 2 +0.000 2 x 3(the minimum Q and Syx values). The four models participating in the verification application had a prediction accuracy of more than 83%,and the accuracy of the one-dimensional cubic function model was as high as 92.6%. In addition, the use of the preferred mathematic model was selected to establish a sputum mites as a rate of disease rate. In the production,the optimal mathematic model of the fit can be used to monitor the occurrence of damage in the field.更多还原