【摘要】 基于当前和RCP2.6情景,选用MaxEnt模型对猕猴桃溃疡病菌(Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae)在四川省的潜在分布区进行预测,并分析21世纪30年代、50年代、70年代和80年代的适生区变化。结果表明,利用ROC曲线对模型模拟的准确度进行评价,训练数据和测试数据AUC分别介于0.915～0.979和0.924～0.970,预测结果准确。当前气候条件下,猕猴桃溃疡病菌在四川省的高适生区主要位于成都市、德阳市、绵阳市、广元市、巴中市、达州市和雅安市,中适生区在四川省21地市(州)均有分布。RCP2.6情景下,与当前情景相比,高适生区和低适生区面积均显著增加,中适生区面积显著减少,不同适生区几何中心位置和迁移规律均有所不同,但总体上均向北移动。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the current situation and RCP2.6 scenario, MaxEnt model was selected to predict the potential distribution area of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae in Sichuan province, and the change of the suitable area in the 1930 s,1950 s, 1970 s and 1980 s was analyzed. The results showed that AUC of training data and test data of all models were0.915 ～0.979 and 0.924 ～0.970, respectively, which indicated a better forecast. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable area for Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae was in Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Guangyuan, Bazhong, Dazhou and Yaan, whereas the moderately suitable area was in 21 cities of Sichuan. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, the areas of the highly and lowly suitable areas increased significantly compared with the current scenario, while the areas of the moderately suitable areas decreased significantly. The geometric center location and migration rule of different suitable areas were different,but they all moved northward in general.更多还原