【摘要】 基于百度新闻和新浪微博搜集的高聚集游客群安全事故案例,运用季节强度指数、季节变动指数、空间基尼系数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数和地理集中度等指标测度和分析高聚集游客群安全事故的时空分异规律与空间演化特征。研究结果显示:(1)高聚集游客群安全事故具有明显的时空分异规律,即高聚集游客群安全事故的分布具有明显的时间聚集性与空间聚集性;(2)高聚集游客群安全事故具有明显的空间演化特征,即高聚集游客群安全事故的省域分布呈现出从聚集向均衡转变的特征,以及"南高北低"和"东高西低"的总体空间分布格局,且其省域分布与省域旅游发展呈现出一致性。据此,制定因时制宜和因地制宜的高聚集游客群安全防控策略,以为高聚集游客群的安全管理提供一定的参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper collected cases from Baidu News and Sina Weibo and analyzed the spatial and temporal differentiation and evolution characteristics with the measurement of seasonal variation index,seasonal strength index,spatial Gini coefficients,Herfindahl-Hirschman index and geographic concentration.The results showed that:(1) there were obvious rules of spatial and temporal differentiation to accidents of HATCs,that was,the distribution of accidents had obvious time concentration and space aggregation;(2) accidents of HATCs presented obvious evolutionary characteristics which were the accident distribution changes from decentralization to concentration.The accidents of HATCs presented the overall spatial distribution pattern with "high in the south,low in the north" and " high in the east,low in the west".The accidents distribution in the province was consistent with the tourism development level in the province.Finally,in order to provide reference to safety management for highly aggregated tourist crowds,this paper proposed the prevention and control strategy of "adapting to the times" and "adapting to the local conditions".更多还原