【摘要】 为评估我国战略新兴产业是否实现良性发展,以7大战略新兴产业股价指数作为研究对象,利用GSADF方法对其是否存在泡沫行为进行检验.实证结果表明:7大战略新兴产业股价指数均存在一个完整的泡沫周期,泡沫的酝酿、形成和破灭与新兴产业发展所处阶段密切相关;虽然各个产业泡沫程度不同,但具有显著的联动效应,且个别产业正在酝酿新一轮泡沫.根据实证分析结果,从建立战略新兴产业风险监控体系、完善产业异质性的金融支持方案和改进企业进入、退出新兴产业的审核机制3个角度提出政策性建议.更多还原

【Abstract】 To evaluate whether the strategic emerging industries of China are in benign situations,seven strategic emerging industrial stock indexes are selected and verified the existence of bubbles with the use of recursive GSADF.The results show that there is a complete bubble cycle for all seven strategic emerging industrial indexes,and the brewing, forming and breaking up of bubbles are closely related to the stage of the development of strategic emerging industries.Although the degree of bubbles is different among these industries,there exists significant linkage effects,and some of them are brewing a new round of bubbles.According to the results of empirical analysis,policy recommendations are put forward from three perspectives,which are the establishment of risk monitoring system for strategic emerging industries,improvement of financial support schemes for industrial heterogeneity and amelioration of auditing mechanism for enterprises entering and exiting strategic emerging industries.更多还原