【摘要】 运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、典型相关分析法和逐步回归分析法研究新疆不同气候区气温和降水的时空变化特征及其对地表水资源的影响。结果如下。1)近50多年来,新疆气温和降水分别以0.32℃/10a和8 mm/10a的倾向率增加,气温增加趋势更显著,且以最低温增温幅度最大。2)气温和降水在1987年发生显著突变,突变后气温的增长幅度更大,而降水由突变前的弱下降趋势变为突变后的弱上升趋势。3)气温和降水的增长率自北向南逐渐减小,北疆暖湿变化明显。4)阿尔泰山南坡区和天山北坡区的地表水资源主要由水文年降水变化主导,而天山南坡区和昆仑山北麓区的地表水资源主要由5—9月气温变化主导。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper we use Mann-Kendall test method,canonical correlation analysis,and stepwise regression analysis methods to study temperature and precipitation variations in different climate zones of Xinjiang and study influence factors on surface water resource. The results are shown as follows. 1) Temperature and precipitation increase at the rates of 0. 32 ℃/10a and 8 mm/10a,respectively. Temperature increase is more significant and it is mainly contributed by the lowest-temperature increase. 2) Temperature rises faster after 1987 than before, while precipitation shows a weak downward trend before 1987 and a weak upward trend after 1987. 3) The increase rates of both temperature and precipitation gradually decrease from north to south,and the northern Xinjiang becomes more warm and wet.4)The surface water resources of the southern slop of Altai Mountains and the northern slop of Tianshan Mountains are mainly dominated by the hydrological years precipitation change,while the resources of the southern slop of Tianshan Mountains and the northern slop of Kunlun Mountains are mainly dominated by the temperature change during the period from May to September.更多还原